A look at on-chain indicators, more specifically Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), in order to determine if the current correction has ended.
The long-term SOPR suggests that bitcoin (BTC) is still in a bullish trend.
The short-term SOPR suggests that the current correction is very close to or has already reached its end.
SOPR is used to measure for the profit and loss in the overall market for each transaction. It does this by measuring the variation between sale and purchase price.
When SOPR is higher than 1, it means that on average, market participants are selling at a profit. The opposite is true when SOPR is lower than 1.
It is calculated by taking the ratio of the value for each UTXO when it’s spent and when it was created.
In a bull market, the SOPR resets at 1 and usually bounces immediately. The reasoning behind it is that when people consider a bull market in place, they rarely sell at a loss. The opposite is true for bear markets.
Whether SOPR is above 1 or below it for long periods of time can also determine whether the trend is bullish or not.
The Adjusted SOPR (aSOPR) filters out the ”noise” by discounting UTXOs with a lifespan of less than one hour.
A look at the aSOPR suggests that the bull run started in September 2020. In the period from January 2018 to September 2020, the aSOPR moved freely above and below 0. This indicated no clear direction for the trend.
Since then, it has consistently stayed above 1.
Throughout this period, there have been two retests of the 1 line. The first occurred in September 2020, just prior to the beginning of the upward movement. The second one occurred in March 2021, and market a local bottom.
It is currently at 1.03. While this is a low value, it indicates that the bull run is still intact.
In order to determine the short-term health of the market, we can use the hourly SOPR, with a three-hour moving average in order to smooth out the values.
Since March 1, there have been roughly five re-tests of the 1 line (marked by the black arrows).
The most recent drop transpired on April 18, and was the sharpest. The SOPR fell all the way to 0.98, before reclaiming it.
Currently, it is back re-testing the 1 line. Therefore, it is likely that BTC has reached a bottom and it will bounce from here.
To conclude, the long-term SOPR indicates that BTC is still in a bullish trend. The short-term one suggests that the current correction might be complete.