Exclusive BTC On-Chain Analysis: HODL Waves Show Medium-Term Sellers

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In Brief
  • Spent outputs between one-six months are increasing.

  • Spent outputs between one-five years have stayed constant.

  • The RHODL Ratio is below its yearly high.

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The Trust Project is an international consortium of news organizations building standards of transparency.

BeInCrypto takes a look at on-chain BTC data, more specifically the HODL wave and Spent Output Age Bands, in order to determine the age of the bitcoins that are currently being transacted.

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Both these indicators show that the majority of selling this year has been done by short and medium-term holders.

BTC HODL waves

The HODL wave is used to show the percentage of BTC that has moved in a specific time period.

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The color settings are:

  • Warm colors represent BTC that have been transacted recently – Red, Orange, Yellow
  • Cold colors represent BTC that have not been transacted recently – Light Yellow, Green, Blue

From the beginning of the year, the biggest change in bands has occurred in the one month-three month (orange) and three month-six month (light orange) bands.

The former went from 17.5% to 32.3% (represented by the black vertical lines) while the latter from 7.29% to 20.35% (represented by the white vertical lines).

Relative to the beginning of the year, long-term holders (one year+) are doing less selling.

Therefore, the majority of the BTC selling this year has been done by short and medium-term holders.

BTC HODL Wave Chart By Glassnode

Spent output age bands

Spent Output Age Bands work in a similar way. They show bands with similar colors in order to show the age of each output that is created when a bitcoin is transacted. 

Since the all-time high price was reached on April 13, there have been three distinct upward spikes, which occurred within the age bands of:

  • one day-one week (light orange)
  • one week-one month (orange)
  • one month-three month (dark orange)
  • three month-six month (light red)
  • six month-12 month (red)

Therefore, since the all-time high, the drops were caused by the selling of short and medium-term holders. The first two spikes were mainly from outputs up until three months, while the third and final spike also showed selling from the three month-12 month bands.

Spent Outage Age Bands Chart By Glassnode

While the one year-seven year bands also had spikes, they were significantly lower than those in March. Therefore, long-term holders are not yet taking profits in the same way that they did in March.

Spent Outage Age Bands Chart By Glassnode
 

Bitcoin RHODL ratio

The Realized HODL Ratio (RHODL Ratio) is used to indicate whether the discrepancy between short and long-term selling signals a top.

The indicator is created by the rate between the one week-one month and one year-two year bands. A high number (above 40,000 ) indicates that the market is approaching a potential top.

The RHODL ratio is currently at 9,800. This is considerably lower than it was in February 2021 when it reached a yearly high of 14,707. 

Furthermore, the value is nowhere close to the previous cycle tops, which all occurred above 80,000.

Realized HODL Ratio Chart By Glassnode

Conclusion

Spent Output Age Bands and the HODL wave show that the majority of the BTC selling in 2021 has been made by holders of up to six months. 

The RHODL ratio indicates that the market is likely not yet close to reaching a top.

For BeInCrypto’s latest bitcoin (BTC) analysis, click here.

Disclaimer

All the information contained on our website is published in good faith and for general information purposes only. Any action the reader takes upon the information found on our website is strictly at their own risk.
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Valdrin discovered cryptocurrencies while he was getting his MSc in Financial Markets from the Barcelona graduate school of Economics. Shortly after graduating, he began writing for several different cryptocurrency related websites as a freelancer before eventually taking on the role of BeInCrypto's Senior Analyst.

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