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Will Bitcoin (BTC) Rise Above $4000 or Fall Back to $3850? (Bitcoin Price Prediction: March 28)

4 mins
Updated by Valdrin Tahiri
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At BeInCrypto, we offer regular price analyses and predictions of the most popular and relevant cryptoassets. In our March 27 analysis of Bitcoin (BTC), we predicted that the price would move inside the confines of the ascending channel defined below with possible slight decreases. The price made a high of $4050 before dropping slightly. It is still trading within the confines of the channel.

On March 25, 2019, Bitcoin (BTC) made a low of $3850. It revisited a similar level on Mar 26. A gradual increase ensued.
A high of $4036 was reached on Mar 27. This high was the following day. At the time of writing on Mar 28, Bitcoin was trading around $4000. Will Bitcoin break out of the $4000 barrier for good or will prices drop down to $3850 lows again? Bitcoin Market Outlook Based on today’s analysis, we believe that Bitcoin will continue trading inside the confines of the channel defined below. Short-term decreases remain likely while long-term grwoth continues.

Bitcoin (BTC): Trends and Highlights For March 28, 2019

  • The price of Bitcoin has been on a short-term uptrend since Mar 25.
  • Rapid price spikes on Mar 27 may have brought the downtrend to an end.
  • BTC is trading inside a longer term ascending channel.
  • There is bearish divergence developing in the RSI and the MACD.
  • There is support near $3900.
  • There is resistance near $4140 and $4030.

Ascending Support

The price of BTC on BitStamp is analyzed at two-hour intervals from Feb 17 to Mar 28. On Feb 17, the price made a low of $3553.80. A sharp upward move began. This was followed by a sharp correction. The price has been on a gradual uptrend since, with each low being higher than the previous one. Tracing these lows gives us an ascending support line:BTC Ascending Support On Feb 25, the price made a high of $3861.80. Since then, several market cycles have been completed with each high being higher than the preceding one. Tracing these highs gives us an ascending resistance line. Furthermore, the resistance and support lines combine to create an ascending channel: Bitcoin Ascending Channel Price increases and decreases are equally likely within the channel. However, because the channel is upward facing long-term gains are expected despite possible short-term losses.

Bearish Divergence

To better asses future price fluctuations, we examine the price of BTC on BitStamp is analyzed at one-hour intervals from Mar 25 to Mar 28 alongside technical indicators.
About the indicators: The relative strength index (RSI) is an indicator which calculates the size of the changes in price in order to determine oversold or overbought conditions in the market. The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) is a trend indicator that shows the relationship between two moving averages (long and short-term) and the price. It is used to measure the strength of a move.
Combining RSI and MACD bullish/bearish divergence with support/resistance essentially predicts price fluctuations.
Bitcoin RSI and MACD On Mar 27, the price made a high of $4035, before closing at $4025. It acted in an identical manner on Mar 28. Similarly, the RSI and the MACD made the first high on Mar 27. However, they have proceeded to generate lower values since. This is known as bearish divergence and often precedes price decreases. In yesterday’s analysis, a similar divergence was observed in the lows of Mar 25 and 26, preceding the price increase. Based on these indicators and the current position of BTC within the channel, we believe the price of Bitcoin will continue moving closer towards the support line. However, it is possible that Bitcoin will touch and validate the resistance line for the sixth time before dropping. 

Reversal Areas

In order to better determine possible future levels of resistance and support, the price of BTC on BitStamp is analyzed at two-hour intervals from Feb 17 to Mar 28. Bitcoin Reversal Areas Resistance and support areas are created when the price visits the same level several times. The first resistance area is found near $4030, slightly above where price is currently trading. The next resistance area is found near $4140, coinciding with the top of the channel. According to this analysis, it is possible but not likely that the price reaches the second resistance area. Bitcoin is currently trading above the first support area at $3940. Continued price drops to this level seem likely.

Summary of Analysis

Based on this analysis, the price of BTC is likely to keep moving inside the confines of the ascending channel with steady, gradual price decreases. It is likely that a drop towards support will follow in the future. However, it is possible that the price touches the resistance line before dropping to support. Do you think BTC will drop towards the support line of the channel? Disclaimer: This article is not trading advice and should not be construed as such. Always consult a trained financial professional before investing in cryptocurrencies, as the market is particularly volatile.
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Disclaimer

In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.

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Valdrin Tahiri
Valdrin discovered cryptocurrencies while he was getting his MSc in Financial Markets from the Barcelona School of Economics. Shortly after graduating, he began writing for several different cryptocurrency related websites as a freelancer before eventually taking on the role of BeInCrypto's Senior Analyst. (I do not have a discord and will not contact you first there. Beware of scammers)
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