Bitcoin’s (BTC) Wave Count Offers Outline to Future Movement

Updated by Ryan James
In Brief
  • BTC might have begun wave five of a long-term five wave upward movement
  • If so, it has reached a bottom on June 18.
  • The bearish count suggests another decrease is expected.
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Bitcoin (BTC) has been moving upwards since June 18. It is possible that this is the beginning of a long-term wave five.

There are two main possibilities for the long-term Bitcoin (BTC) wave count. 

The bullish one suggests that Bitcoin has just begun the fifth and final wave of a five-wave upward movement (white) that started in March 2020. 

The main factor that supports this possibility is the fact that the bottom of wave four occurred right at the channel connecting the highs of waves 1-3 and lows of waves 2-4. Moreover, the corrective waves two and four had very similar lengths. 

A decrease below wave one high at $13,880 (red line) would invalidate this particular count since wave four would drop into wave one territory.

Short-term BTC count

If the proposed count is correct, the short-term count would indicate that since the all-time high, the price has completed an A-B-C corrective structure (red), in which waves A:C has had an exactly 1:1.61 ratio. This is the second most common ratio between the waves after the 1:1 one. The sub-wave count is given in black. 

If correct, this would mean that a new five-wave upward movement has begun. A decrease below the sub-wave two low (red line) at $20,700 would invalidate this particular wave count.

Alternate scenario

Cryptocurrency trader @Thetradinghubb tweeted a chart of BTC which shows a complex corrective structure. In it, Bitcoin will make another low towards $15,000 prior to the continuation of the upward movement. However, he suggested that the proportions are off, leading him to believe that this is not the correct count.

So, the only other potential count would indicate that the entire five-wave upward movement has come to an end, and the price has now begun a long-term A-B-C correction (white). The sub-wave count is given in black, suggesting that the price is in sub-wave four and will decrease once more in order to finish sub-wave five.

While the decrease is proportional, the issue with this count is the shallow waves four and five (white). Due to these discrepancies, the bullish count remains more likely.

For Be[in]Crypto’s latest Bitcoin (BTC) analysis, click here

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