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Bitcoin’s (BTC) Wave Count Offers Outline to Future Movement

2 mins
Updated by Ryan Boltman
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In Brief

  • BTC might have begun wave five of a long-term five wave upward movement
  • If so, it has reached a bottom on June 18.
  • The bearish count suggests another decrease is expected.
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Bitcoin (BTC) has been moving upwards since June 18. It is possible that this is the beginning of a long-term wave five.

There are two main possibilities for the long-term Bitcoin (BTC) wave count. 

The bullish one suggests that Bitcoin has just begun the fifth and final wave of a five-wave upward movement (white) that started in March 2020. 

The main factor that supports this possibility is the fact that the bottom of wave four occurred right at the channel connecting the highs of waves 1-3 and lows of waves 2-4. Moreover, the corrective waves two and four had very similar lengths. 

A decrease below wave one high at $13,880 (red line) would invalidate this particular count since wave four would drop into wave one territory.

BTC long-term count
BTC/USD Chart By TradingView

Short-term BTC count

If the proposed count is correct, the short-term count would indicate that since the all-time high, the price has completed an A-B-C corrective structure (red), in which waves A:C has had an exactly 1:1.61 ratio. This is the second most common ratio between the waves after the 1:1 one. The sub-wave count is given in black. 

If correct, this would mean that a new five-wave upward movement has begun. A decrease below the sub-wave two low (red line) at $20,700 would invalidate this particular wave count.

Short-term wave count
BTC/USD Chart By TradingView

Alternate scenario

Cryptocurrency trader @Thetradinghubb tweeted a chart of BTC which shows a complex corrective structure. In it, Bitcoin will make another low towards $15,000 prior to the continuation of the upward movement. However, he suggested that the proportions are off, leading him to believe that this is not the correct count.

BTC wave count
Source: Twitter

So, the only other potential count would indicate that the entire five-wave upward movement has come to an end, and the price has now begun a long-term A-B-C correction (white). The sub-wave count is given in black, suggesting that the price is in sub-wave four and will decrease once more in order to finish sub-wave five.

While the decrease is proportional, the issue with this count is the shallow waves four and five (white). Due to these discrepancies, the bullish count remains more likely.

Wave count BTC
BTC/USDT Chart By TradingView

For Be[in]Crypto’s latest Bitcoin (BTC) analysis, click here

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In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.

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Valdrin Tahiri
Valdrin discovered cryptocurrencies while he was getting his MSc in Financial Markets from the Barcelona School of Economics. Shortly after graduating, he began writing for several different cryptocurrency related websites as a freelancer before eventually taking on the role of BeInCrypto's Senior Analyst. (I do not have a discord and will not contact you first there. Beware of scammers)
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