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Moving averages (MA) can be immensely important in determining significant support and resistance levels. The relationship between price and its MAs can successfully identify the direction of a trend as well.
Well-known professional trader and financial consultant, @captainscio pointed out the fact that the Bitcoin price has been unsuccessfully attempting to move above the 200-day MA for the fourth time. Based on this, he refuted the possibility of buying in order to initiate a long position.
1) We didn't close above the 200dma, but we certainly challenged it. This will make the 4th time we have been rejected there. Also, I'd like to point out that the Tom Demark countdown indicator requires a green 2 to close above the high of a green 1 and we didn't get that either. pic.twitter.com/oHn2UJrTkt
— CaptainScio: FA and TA For BTC And Indices (@CaptainScio) October 2, 2019
The MA has been historically significant, with price movement above and below it often determining whether BTC is in an uptrend or downtrend.
Looking closer at the relationship between the price and the MA, we can see that the critical breakdown occurred on September 26.
On Sept 24 and 25, the price fell below the MA but proceeded to close above it, but was not the case on Sept 26.
Afterward, it reached the MA again on Sept 28 and Oct 3. In both cases, it was sharply rejected and the price decreased below.
Previously, BTC traded below the 200-day MA for nearly 390 days, from March 2018 to April 2019.
While the MA was instrumental in identifying the downtrend for BTC, this movement was preceded by a fake breakdown in Feb 2018.
The moved occurred on Feb 5 and seems equivalent to the Sept 26 decrease.
However, in 2018, the price began an upward move after a few days, increasing by nearly 100%. An increase of half of that magnitude would take us to $11,500.
In this case, however, BeInCrypto agrees with @captainscio that the relationship between the price and MA makes this an unfavorable level for initiating a long position.
Entering a long position would only be suggested after the price moves above the 200-day MA to close a few daily candles to validate it.
In the 2018 movement, this occurred on February 11. A similar movement would likely provide a good opportunity to go long.
Do you think BTC will move back above its 200-day MA? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below.
Disclaimer: This article is not trading advice and should not be construed as such. Always consult a trained financial professional before investing in cryptocurrencies, as the market is particularly volatile.
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