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How Will Bitcoin React to $640 Million in Options Expiring Today? 

2 mins
Updated by Kyle Baird
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In Brief

  • 25,000 Bitcoin options contracts with a notional value of $640M, expire today, a smaller amount than previous weeks.
  • In addition to Bitcoin, 138,000 Ethereum contracts, with a notional value of $220M, are also set to expire today.
  • Bitcoin prices have seen a slight increase today, reaching $26,217, the highest price since late-August.
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Friday is Bitcoin options day, and a large stack is ready to expire. Will they have any impact on its lackluster price? A number of Ethereum options will also expire today, and ETH has been even quieter than BTC lately. 

On September 8, around 25,000 Bitcoin options contracts will expire with a notional value of $640 million. Additionally, this is a much smaller expiry event than in previous weeks, which have seen up to three times the open interest.

Bitcoin Options Expiry Day

The max pain point of today’s batch of expiring Bitcoin options contracts is $26,500, pretty close to current spot prices. 

Max pain is the price level with the most open contracts and at which most losses will be made when they expire.

The put/call ratio for today’s expiring contracts is 0.51. This means they are selling twice as many long contracts as shorts.

Greeks Live noted that BTC and ETH intraday volatility has been very low for most of the week. There was “a small wave pulling up to the max pain point near the time of delivery, which was the opposite of last week,” it added.

Bitcoin options OI. Source: X/@GreeksLive
Bitcoin options OI. Source: X/@GreeksLive

The lack of volatility “resulted in a more stable position structure this week,” it added. There is currently low daily option implied volatility and a relatively stable long-term option IV.

“Put options are more expensive and the low liquidity market needs to guard against declines, but the probability of a crash is not high from the whale’s positions.”

IV is a measure of expected future volatility derived from the expiring derivatives contracts.

In addition to the BTC contract expiry, 138,000 Ethereum contracts will expire today. These have a notional value of $220 million and a max pain point of $1,650. 

The put/call ratio for ETH options is 0.86, signaling more balance between longs and shorts

BTC Price Outlook 

Bitcoin prices have had a little lift this Friday, gaining 1.7% on the day to reach $26,217 at the time of writing.

BTC Price in USD 1 week. Source: BeInCrypto
BTC Price in USD 1 week. Source: BeInCrypto

It is the highest price BTC has seen since late August, but the asset remains range-bound. 

The $26,000 region has become a solid layer of support, but Bitcoin has failed to sustain larger gains, facing heavy resistance above it. 

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Martin Young
Martin Young is a seasoned cryptocurrency journalist and editor with over 7 years of experience covering the latest news and trends in the digital asset space. He is passionate about making complex blockchain, fintech, and macroeconomics concepts understandable for mainstream audiences.   Martin has been featured in top finance, technology, and crypto publications including BeInCrypto, CoinTelegraph, NewsBTC, FX Empire, and Asia Times. His articles provide an in-depth analysis of...
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