Bitcoin Long-Term Logarithmic Curve May Indicate a Bottom Is Near

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Highlights

• The Bitcoin price is following a long-term logarithmic growth curve.
• It has touched it for the tenth time.
• The price is trading above its 200-week moving average (MA).
• The weekly RSI is indicative of consolidation.

Well-known trader @Sawcruhteez outlined a BTC price chart stating that the price is testing the adoption curve trend-line once again — the seventh time it’s happened since 2013.

#Bitcoin is testing the adoption curve trendline for the seventh time since 2013. 👀🚀 pic.twitter.com/ejanLUn5WJ

— Tyler D. Coates (@Sawcruhteez) March 9, 2020

Long-Term Chart

The Bitcoin price has been following a curved ascending support line since 2011. The tweet is right in stating that this is the seventh time it is being touched since 2013. However, if we include the three other touchdowns which happened in 2011 and 2012, this is the tenth time it has done so. There are two more interesting observations stemming from this chart. The first is that the majority of the touches have occurred slightly prior to or after the previous two halvings (vertical lines). The third is projected to occur in May 2020, so the pattern has continued to hold true. Secondly, the support line has somewhat mirrored the 200-week MA (white). The price has been trading above both the 200-week MA and the support line, in some cases validating both. Unless the support breaks, we could eventually see an upward move towards the resistance line.

Technical Indicators

Focusing on the price movement since September 2019, we can see that the price is likely consolidating. There are two main reasons for this — being the weekly RSI and the 50-week MA. The recent decrease was the third time that the price has moved above or below this MA. In addition, the weekly RSI has crossed above or below 50 numerous times, which is a characteristic of range trading. An almost identical movement occurred in late 2011. Interestingly, the third time the price crossed below this 50-week MA occurred after 182 days, the same amount of time as in the current movement. If the fractal holds, the price will continue consolidating without experiencing significant movement for the next 133 days prior to breaking out. To conclude, the Bitcoin price has been following a curved ascending support line since its inception. The current decrease served to validate this line for the tenth time. It is possible that the long-term bottom will be reached near the current level.