If Bitcoin’s rally holds, it would place this quarter among the best starts to the year for the leading cryptocurrency since 2012.
Q1 has always been a mixed bag for Bitcoin. Gains in this quarter, historically, have seldom gone over 10%, and in many years BTC experienced drastic losses. For example, 2018 saw a 50% decline in Q1 alone. 2014 and 2015 also saw double-digit losses.
However, 2020 is shaping out to be different than the rest. If the latest rally can maintain itself without a huge correction, it could be Bitcoin’s best Q1 performance since 2012. At the time of publishing, the leading cryptocurrency is up 25% since the start of the year — well beyond the 10% it posted in Q1 2019.
Skew (@skewdotcom) made the observation on Twitter yesterday. As many pointed out, however, it may still be too early to tell.
This is bitcoin's best start to the year since 2012 pic.twitter.com/Mh3Yf0e798
— skew (@skewdotcom) January 14, 2020
Still, even if it is too early, the trends look strong. Bitcoin did manage to touch $8,900 yesterday before pulling back slightly to $8,650 at the time of writing. Trading volume sits at a whopping $45 billion, not excluding all the wash trading which goes on regardless.
So, could Bitcoin build on this momentum and wrap up Q1 securing even more gains? It seems possible given that the next halving is coming up in May, an inherently bullish time for Bitcoin. The last halving in 2016 did see Q1 post a minor loss of 3%. However, the succeeding quarter was explosive. Bitcoin gained 61% in Q2 of 2016, perhaps this may be an indicator of what to expect in Q2 2020 if we can trust market history.
Analysts have overwhelmingly been just as bullish as well. Yesterday, Fundstrat made the call that its 2020 outlook was that Bitcoin would double this year. As BeInCrypto reported, the research firm argues that the halving event and geopolitical instability are the two main catalysts pushing Bitcoin’s growth in 2020.
There is always the fear that the halving event is ‘priced in,’ however. Yet, based on recent market trends, this seems to not be the case, especially if Bitcoin’s Q1 gains hold.