Bitcoin (BTC) has been falling at an accelerated rate since May 4 and is in the process of breaking down from a long-term structure.
Bitcoin has been falling since reaching an all-time high price of $69,000 on Nov. 10, 2021 (red icon). The downward move was briefly halted after it reached a local of $32,917 on Jan. 23, 2022. The rebound that followed served to validate the line of a potential ascending parallel channel.
This led to a local high of $48,189 at the end of March, but the price has been falling since. So far, it has reached a low of $33,267, which is very close to the yearly low of $32,917.
BTC is currently in the process of breaking down from the ascending parallel channel that’s been in place since May 2021. A breakdown from such a long-term structure could lead to the acceleration of the downward movement.
Additionally, it’s worth noting that BTC has generated six successive bearish candlesticks, which is the most since 2014. There have never been seven successive bearish candlesticks.
Technical indicators in the weekly time frame are bearish. Both the weekly RSI and MACD are falling, and the latter has just crossed into negative territory (red icon). The MACD has also generated 21 consecutive bearish bars.
While there is a potential bullish divergence developing in the RSI (green line), it’s quite small and has yet to be confirmed.
The indicator readings share some similarities to the movement in both 2018 and March 2020 (red icons). The similarities come from the MACD cross into negative territory and at least 21 successive bearish momentum bars.
Due to the lower RSI reading, the current attributes are slightly closer to those in 2020 than those in 2018.
While both movements were quite close to bottoms, BTC had yet to reach a bottom in 2018 but had already done so in 2020.
Future BTC movement
Finally, the daily time frame shows that BTC has broken down from a short-term ascending parallel channel that had previously been in place since Jan. 24.
Besides the possibility of a double bottom pattern near $32,000, there are no bullish signs in place.