Bitcoin (BTC) decreased considerably during the week of Sept 29-26, falling to a low of $39,600 before bouncing and creating a long lower wick.
However, BTC is trading inside a short-term descending parallel channel, from which an eventual breakout is expected.
Weekly BTC outlook
BTC has been decreasing since breaking down from an ascending support line and validating it as resistance. This also coincided with a rejection from the Supertrend line (red line), which is bearish.
On Sept 26, BTC created another bearish candlestick, although it had a long lower wick.
The RSI and MACD are providing mixed signs. The MACD is positive but decreasing and has yet to provide a bullish reversal signal. The RSI has moved above 50 but is not showing strength.
Therefore, a look at lower time-frames is required in order to more accurately determine the direction of the future trend.
Attempt to reclaim support
The daily chart shows that BTC is facing resistance at $44,000. The area previously acted as support throughout August and September when BTC broke down.
It made an unsuccessful attempt at reclaiming the area on Sept 24 but was rejected.
Similar to the weekly time frame, technical indicators provide mixed signs. The MACD is positive but decreasing. The RSI is moving upwards but has yet to cross the 50-line.
The closest support area is found at $38,000.
The six-hour chart shows that BTC is trading inside a descending parallel descending channel since Sept 7. Such channels usually contain corrective structures.
Therefore, a breakout from the channel would be the most likely scenario. The wave count also indicates that an eventual breakout is expected.
Furthermore, the MACD and RSI are both increasing, supporting the possibility of a breakout.
The two-hour chart shows that BTC has bounced at the 0.786 Fib retracement support level and created an ascending support line after. The line has been validated multiple times (green icons) so far. As long as the support line is in place, the bullish structure remains intact.
There is minor support at $42,950. This is the 0.382 Fib retracement support level and a horizontal resistance area.
Therefore, the most likely scenario would have BTC bouncing at this area before moving upwards.