As Bitcoin takes a breather and looks to be in a retracement period, it’s the perfect time to look at the bigger picture.
Looking back at Bitcoin’s history, one of the main events in its existence is the “Halving”. This event simply cuts in half the amount of Bitcoin that gets created every 10 minutes. Halvings have been built into the protocol and are scheduled to take place roughly every four years.
Emission Change During Bitcoin Halving
This makes Bitcoin’s supply foreseeable and reliable – just like a store-of-value asset should be. What is less predictable is how the price swings around these milestone events. After going through two halvings, Bitcoin is now approaching its third one that is set to take place around May 2020.
This is when the current block reward of 12.5 Bitcoins every 10 minutes will be cut in half to 6.25 Bitcoins, changing the emission for the next four years.
Cryptocurrency traders and analysts will look to take advantage of the upcoming halving as the price moves. Looking back at the previous two halvings, there are similarities in price movement that could be extrapolated to the halving in 2020.
Post-Halving Price Madness
As Twitter user and cryptocurrency trader @RektCapital highlights, the Bitcoin halving is a key catalyst to beginning a new Bitcoin bull market. According to the analysis, there are several common threads during the first two halvings that will likely play out similarly during the third one.
If #Bitcoin rallies just like it did in its previous two Halvings…
Bitcoin's price will be $385,000 – $425,000
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) September 10, 2019
Besides experiencing price rallies on both sides of a halving, using past figures the third post-halving bull run could send Bitcoin’s price in the $385,000 – $425,000 region. Should Bitcoin’s price action resemble that during the first and second halving, then the biggest digital asset could very well be on a trajectory to surpass the legacy global store-of-value asset — gold.
Gold currently has a market capitalization of $7.8 trillion, and with BTC at $385,000 the cryptocurrency will have overtaken gold and establish itself as the digital gold that is so often associated with Bitcoin.
Even though historical price action can be useful in predicting future trends, no future price action will follow historical data entirely. The Bitcoin Halving is a simple narrative loaded with opportunities for profits. Nonetheless, past performance doesn’t guarantee future outcomes.
What is your expectation regarding the Bitcoin halving next year? Will the bull run resemble the previous ones? Let us know in the comments!