Bitcoin Analysis for 2019-12-30 [Premium Analysis]

Bitcoin Price Highlights

• The Bitcoin price has yet to reach a weekly close above resistance.
• It is following a descending resistance line and possibly trading inside a descending triangle.
• There is minor resistance at $7440 and $7540.
• A breakdown below the 100- and 200-hour MAs would confirm the short-term bearishness.

Weekly Bitcoin Outlook

The weekly chart reveals that the Bitcoin price has yet to close above the $7400-$7600 resistance area, from which the price broke down in late November. However, the price has created two large bullish candlesticks, while the succeeding bearish ones have been smaller. Based on this alone, we can assume that the bulls have more strength and the price will break out once the selling resistance dissipates. The price has seemingly found support above the 100-week moving average (MA) but is still trading below the 50-week one.

Resistance Line

Looking at the daily chart, we can see that the Bitcoin price is following a descending resistance line. Its slope is uncertain due to the presence of several long upper wicks. This resistance area is strengthened by the 50-week MA. A breakout above this line would take the price to the $7800-$7900 area, which marks the high reached on November 29. Also, looking at this line in the context of the trading range, it falls slightly below the top of the range at $7600. Therefore, if the Bitcoin price keeps following it, it will not reach the high of nearly $7600 again. Additionally, while the support line has yet to be validated sufficient times, it is possible that the Bitcoin price is trading inside a very long-term descending triangle with a bottom near $6600.

Short-Term Movement

The short-term chart reveals yesterday’s fake breakout. The price moved above the $7440 resistance area, which coincides with the 0.618 Fib level and moved to the next resistance area at the 0.786 Fib level. Once it got there, the price created a bearish engulfing candlestick and proceeded to move downward. The fact that the price failed to sustain the higher post-breakout levels suggests that it will move down towards the bottom of the range at $7160. For this to occur, the Bitcoin price would have to decrease below the 100- and 200-hour MAs, which have made a bullish cross. This would indicate that the short-term upward move that began on December 27 has ended. To conclude, the Bitcoin price initiated a failed breakout late last night. The price is in the process of decreasing and possibly trading in a long-term descending triangle.  A movement below the 100- and 200-hour MAs would suggest that the price is in the process of moving towards the bottom of the range. Good luck and happy trading! For our previous analysis, click here.