Arthur Hayes, former CEO of BitMEX, has predicted that Bitcoin (BTC) could soar to $250,000 by the end of the year.
However, this prediction is contingent on the US Federal Reserve (Fed) shifting its monetary policy toward Quantitative Easing (QE).
Bitcoin to $250,000, Hayes Predicts
Hayes argues that a halt in Quantitative Tightening (QT) and a return to liquidity injections would trigger a substantial Bitcoin rally.
“If my analysis regarding the interplay of the Fed, Treasury, and banking system is correct, then Bitcoin hit a local low of $76,500 last month, and now we begin the ascent to $250,000 by year-end,” read an excerpt in his latest blog.
This prediction hinges on his belief that central banks, particularly the Fed, will be forced to intervene to support financial markets, ultimately driving Bitcoin higher.
Further, the BitMEX co-founder directly ties Bitcoin’s potential price movement to the Fed’s approach to monetary policy. He argues that the central bank’s response to mounting fiscal pressures will lead to an end of QT and a de facto return to QE.
“Powell proved last week that fiscal dominance is alive and well and that he will do whatever it takes to ensure the Treasury can fund itself at reasonable rates. Therefore, I am confident QT, at least regarding treasuries, will stop in the short to medium term,” Hayes added.
Based on these, Arthur Hayes sees this as a pivotal moment for Bitcoin, emphasizing that the pioneer crypto would “scream higher once this is formally announced.”
Hayes also reinforced his confidence in the prediction, stating that his Bitcoin target is attainable as the bond market, banks, and Congress (which he terms BBC) will pressure the Fed into action.
British financial expert Raoul Pal supports the thesis of a bullish outlook for Bitcoin price. The former Goldman Sachs executive pointed to macroeconomic indicators that suggest a Bitcoin rally is imminent.
Raoul Pal shared a chart correlating the global M2 money supply and Bitcoin’s price. Based on history, Bitcoin tends to rise around 10 weeks after M2 increases, with Pal’s analysis suggesting that Bitcoin may soon enter a bullish phase.
“The waiting game is almost over…the 10-week lead is my preferred… but,” Pal remarked.
QCP Capital’s Stagflation Warning
Adding another layer to the macroeconomic picture, analysts at QCP Capital warn that if stagflation takes hold, the Fed could lean toward hiking rates instead of cutting them. Such an action would complicate the bullish outlook for Bitcoin.
“Markets continue to price 2.5 cuts in 2025. The Fed finds itself in a tight corner with consumer confidence and soft data coming in weak which may portend weaker GDP in Q2. At the same time, tariff-induced inflationary pressures could start building after April 2,” the analyst wrote.
The optimism comes despite Bitcoin logging its worst first quarter (Q1) performance in seven years. This notwithstanding, analysts point to a bullish momentum, suggesting that a price recovery is on the horizon.
“Sellers have dried up, and buyers seem comfortable with current price levels – setting the stage for a structural supply shortage. April-May could turn into a consolidation zone – a calm before the next impulse,” stated market analyst Axel Adler Jr.
Veteran investors are also increasing their Bitcoin holdings, signaling a phase of accumulation that often precedes strong price rallies. Market data also indicates that declining selling pressure from Bitcoin holders is paving the way for a potential push toward $90,000.
Meanwhile, Standard Chartered has noted Bitcoin’s growing role as an inflation hedge. This further solidifies the pioneer crypto’s place as a macroeconomic asset in uncertain financial times.
Nevertheless, as macroeconomic concerns continue challenging Bitcoin’s attractiveness, Gold is progressively presenting as an alternative store of value. BeInCrypto also reported that gold is outshining Bitcoin as a haven amid Trump’s 2025 tariff chaos.
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