At the start of 2025, several altcoins surged to new all-time highs. Others climbed to multi-month peaks, riding the wave of the Donald Trump-fueled rally that swept through the crypto market.
However, Trump’s escalating trade wars and broader macroeconomic unrest have led to a significant downturn in many altcoins, raising questions about the timing of the next altcoin season.
Altcoin Season Slips Further Away
Altcoin season refers to a market cycle in which crypto assets other than Bitcoin significantly outperform BTC in terms of price gains. Many altcoins witness significant price surges during this period, often due to increased investor speculation, capital rotation from BTC into other crypto assets, and bullish sentiment in the market.
This cycle commences when at least 75% of the top 50 altcoins outperform BTC over a three-month period. However, this is far from the reality. The Altcoin Index, which tracks this trend, has plunged to its lowest level since October 2024, signaling continued weakness in the sector.
As of this writing, only 24% of top altcoins have outperformed leading crypto Bitcoin over the past 90 days, highlighting its dominance in the current market cycle. This persistent underperformance suggests that an altcoin season may still be far off.
Further reinforcing this bearish outlook, TOTAL2, the metric tracking the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies excluding BTC, has remained in a descending parallel channel since the beginning of the year.
This pattern signals a sustained downtrend. It is formed when an asset’s price moves between two downward-sloping parallel trendlines, with lower highs and lower lows over time. As of this writing, TOTAL2 is at $1.14 trillion, plummeting by 17% since January 1.
This decline confirms the lack of strong bullish momentum across the altcoin market, hinting at zero likelihood of an altcoin season kicking off anytime soon.
Bitcoin Dominance Climbs as Market Pullback Deepens
While the market has witnessed a significant pullback recently amid Trump’s trade wars, Bitcoin dominance has continued to increase. An assessment of Bitcoin’s dominance (BTC.D) on a daily chart confirms the same.
This metric, which measures the percentage of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization that Bitcoin holds, has remained above an ascending trend line since last December. As of this writing, it sits at 61.29%.
If BTC’s dominance remains elevated, it could further delay the prospects of an altcoin season.
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