The SEC acknowledged several Solana ETF filings on Tuesday, increasing the odds of its eventual approval. ETF analysts believe that a Litecoin or Dogecoin ETF is more likely, but the SEC is seemingly turning focus on Solana.
Essentially, the most important consideration for an ETF approval is whether the SEC classifies a token as a security or commodity.
Solana ETF Approval Odds Jump
On Tuesday, the SEC announced a public comment period for the Canary Solana Trust, an ETF proposed by Canary Capital. The agency also acknowledged similar applications from VanEck, 21Shares, and Bitwise, bringing Solana investment products closer to potential approval.
This move starts the official timeline for a decision. The SEC has 21 days to approve, reject, or extend its review of these applications. While delays are common, industry analysts believe 2024 could see the approval of ETFs for Solana and other altcoins.
Yesterday, Bloomberg analysts predicted that Litecoin and Dogecoin ETFs are more likely to receive SEC approvals before Solana and XRP. However, it seems that the SEC is turning focus on a bulk of Solana ETFs.
“Our official altcoin ETF approval odds are out. Litecoin leads with a 90% chance, then Doge, followed by Solana and XRP. We are only doing 33 Act $IBIT-esque filings. But it is possible to see futures or Cayman-subsidiary type 40 Act stuff get through as well,” Eric Balchunas wrote yesterday.
The SEC already acknowledged Grayscale’s Solana ETF application last week. Now, the important question is whether the Commission will acknowledge other altcoins like XRP or Dogecoin.
Meanwhile, other asset managers are also prioritizing Solana. For example, Franklin filed for a Solana Trust earlier today, which will likely lead to an ETF application later.
Furthermore, the odds are changing on Polymarket, the leading prediction market. Currently, the community believes there’s an 82% chance of Solana fund being approved this year.
However, several other altcoins are on the line. For example, in addition to the top 10 tokens, altcoins like Hedera have ETF applications with the SEC. The Commission is expected to look at these assets on a case-by-case basis.
If overall regulatory clarity is provided about securities and commodities, bulk approvals might also come for several altcoin ETFs. Till then, Solana seems to be the SEC’s current focus.
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