On Monday, the crypto market experienced what was billed as the largest liquidation event in history, destroying upwards of $2 billion in positions. Amid calls for the colloquial ‘altcoin season,’ analysts are divided on whether February is the month or if crypto markets must wait until April.
The arguments and projections refer to past market crashes, such as those in 2020 and 2022, and how the sector responded.
Analysts Weigh In on the Crypto Market Recovery Timeline
BeInCrypto reported on Monday’s historic $2 billion liquidation event, provoked by US President Donald Trump’s tariffs. As it happened, the president reached an agreement with Canada and Mexico, prompting some level of recovery in the market.
However, analysts remain unconvinced that a full-blown market recovery is here, even as others call for an altcoin season.
Mathew Hyland, a blockchain analyst, shared his insights on the market downturn, emphasizing that recovery will take time. He highlighted that although Bitcoin (BTC) did not break down, altcoins suffered significantly, resulting in the historic liquidation event. He says this indicates the extent of damage sustained by the altcoin market.
According to Hyland, while the massive liquidation event signified the market’s bottoming out, it is not yet ripe for a bounce back.
“Considering this was the largest liquidation event in Crypto history, it likely means the low is in. However, in 2020 & 2022, it took over two months for the full recovery to take place,” Hyland said.
The controversial analyst also pointed out that December highs for most altcoins may not return for at least two months, if not longer. Based on this outlook, Hyland cautions traders to temper their expectations, adding that even V-shaped recoveries like in 2020 took weeks with several dips along the way.
Another technical analyst, CryptoCon, echoed Hyland’s sentiments. He described the event as a major shakeout for overleveraged traders. While the analyst acknowledges that the cycle is well on track, he did not suggest an imminent recovery.
“What happened to a good-performing February? Still inbound, the cycle is well on track. It is clear that certain entities do not want people longing altcoins from their bottoms at 100X for the entire bull market,” the analyst stated.
CryptoCon’s outlook aligns with several other analysts, including Rover, who hold that the trajectory remains intact. In a post on X, CryptoRover highlighted that altcoins would go “parabolic” soon.
Arguments for Altcoin Season in February
Meanwhile, like CryptoCon, sentiment for February remains positive among other analysts, including Merlijn The Trader. In a related post, the analyst predicts that February will signal the start of an altcoin season and, therefore, market recovery. The analyst cites historical data suggesting that altcoin rallies have consistently begun in February, and this cycle should be no different.
“Altcoin season starts in February! History doesn’t lie, and neither do the charts,” said Merlijin in a post.
Others point to Bitcoin’s dominance as a key indicator, noting that the top is almost in for this metric, setting the stage for an altcoin season. Similarly, Coinvo, an analyst, reiterated the sentiment.
“Altcoin season has always started in February, and this cycle will be no different,” chimed Coinvo.
Another crypto analyst, DevKhabib, offered a contrasting perspective, highlighting February as a good month for Bitcoin. The analyst identified the $91,000 level as a crucial support floor for the Bitcoin price. He emphasized that the price rebounded strongly, expressing optimism about the market’s future.
“$91,000 seems to be a strong support for BTC as we bounced directly off it. Let us hope we continue to range above $94,000 so the market can recover a little bit. February usually is green, and I think we will still get a bullish February. A bad beginning makes a good ending,” the analyst expressed.
Moreover, according to data from IntoTheBlock, the range between $95,620 and $98,505 represents significant support for Bitcoin price
Any efforts by the bears to push the price below this level would be met by buying pressure from approximately 1.74 million addresses who bought BTC at an average price of $97,195.
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