Cryptocurrency markets continue to respond to US economic events as traders and investors adjust their strategies based on macro data. While the calendar includes several releases, only a few will be of interest to Bitcoin (BTC).
Meanwhile, Bitcoin remains range-bound, trading well above the psychological $60,000 level, but $64,000 is proving impenetrable.
CPI
The highlight of this week’s US economic data will be the Thursday, October 10 report from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which will release the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) data.
The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest-rate outlook continues to put inflation in the spotlight for crypto and stock markets. Economists anticipate headline inflation to rise 0.1% for September. They also forecast core CPI, the more closely watched US economic data that eliminates volatile food and energy costs, to increase by 0.2%.
The year-on-year (YoY) headline CPI rate is expected to cool to 2.3% from 2.5% in August. On the other hand, the core number is predicted to remain steady at 3.2% YoY in September.
Read more: How to Protect Yourself From Inflation Using Cryptocurrency.
If the Thursday data comes in hotter than expected, however, it would suggest a potential inflation resurgence in the coming months. This could restrict the pace at which the Fed can lower policy rates further and, more importantly, reduce the chances of a further upside for Bitcoin.
“We DO NOT want to see inflation pick back up. In-line would probably be best,” Associate Portfolio Manager at Revere Asset Management Ted Zhang said.
PPI
The US BLS will also report September’s Core Producer Price Index (PPI) this week. This data determines price increases at the producer level. Its influence on financial markets comes as it measures inflation at the wholesale level.
The data would provide important information about inflationary pressures at the producer level of the supply chain. By tracking changes in producer prices, analysts and policymakers can gain insights into potential future trends in consumer prices.
Increases in PPI would indicate rising production costs, which could lead to higher energy and hardware costs required for mining and processing crypto. As such, a higher core PPI on Friday could negatively affect Bitcoin and crypto.
Initial Jobless Claims
The labor department will also release the initial jobless claims on Thursday, after the megahit September jobs report last week. As it happened, the US economy added 254,000 jobs, far exceeding expectations. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% from 4.2% in August.
This potentially set the tone for the economy to score a soft landing, which is a relatively rare success story for the Fed. In a soft landing, inflation cools without triggering a recession.
Meanwhile, amid falling inflation and positive jobs data, investors are dialing back their bets on the Fed’s future interest-rate cuts. The general concern is that the central bank could have made a policy mistake when it lowered interest rates by 50 bps last month. The risk to the market is that the Fed may have been too aggressive to cut rates, as inflation has not been beaten yet.
Q3 Earnings
As a bonus to the US economic data, the third-quarter (Q3) corporate earnings-reporting season starts this week. Results from major financial firms like JP Morgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC), and BlackRock Inc. (BLK), which are due on Friday, could also move markets.
Read more: Who Owns the Most Bitcoin in 2024?
As the cryptocurrency market braces for potential shifts, Bitcoin is trading at $63,533, reflecting a 2.47% increase in the past 24 hours.
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