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Everyone always wants to know where’s price is headed — so let’s take a look at some silly targets!
American family-controlled business magazine Forbes published an article yesterday titled “Bitcoin Traders Should Watch $5,600 And $8,900.” As the title implies, the author believes those two price targets accurately represent crucial low and high prices levels for the cryptocurrency market leader.
Those targets aren’t the silly ones.
What the heck is Hayes’ model?
Assuming Forbes isn’t talking about BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes — who once predicted Bitcoin would reach $50,000 by the end of 2018 — the model apparently comes from “Cryptocurrency Value Formation: An Empirical Analysis Leading to a Cost of Production Model for Valuing Bitcoin” by Adam Hayes.
More details can be found by reading the paper, of course. As illustrated by Forbes, this apparently means that Bitcoin could reach levels above $10,000 in the next week.
Let’s be frank — the likelihood of that happening is slim to none, with “none” comprising about 95 percent of that share.
Wheatley’s supposed price target for the next seven days is even more ridiculous.
Actually, it’s a downright joke.
We won’t sit here and pretend like we understand exactly what Wheatley and crew were talking about when they concluded that Bitcoin could reach levels as low as $1,070.77 — but they must have been smoking some pretty strong science.
Let’s keep it simple and keep it stupid by looking at a basic weekly chart for BTC/USD on Coinbase:
In order for Wheatley’s model to work out, Bitcoin would essentially need to follow the above arrow straight down to the target line with one weekly candle — smashing through every support level known to man and apparently finding no buyers along the way.
Doesn’t seem very likely, does it?
Of course, we’re really just having a bit of fun by looking at these models — and we’re sure they have some merit in their own rights. Wheatley’s, in particular, was probably made to exemplify an extreme scenario following the collapse of the Bitcoin bubble.
If anything, these models serve to illustrate just how difficult it is to predict Bitcoin’s price movements in the short, medium, or long term.
Could Bitcoin collapse down to $1,000 in the next week? Sure — anything is possible. Is it likely? No.
What do you think of Hayes’ and Wheatley’s models? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below!
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