XRP Flashes a Bottoming Signal; Yet the Price Recovery Looks Delayed

The XRP price trades near $1.90, down about 9% over the past 24 hours and extending its 30-day decline to around 19%. A few bottoming signals have appeared, especially from short-term holders.

But the XRP price still looks far from a recovery. This piece explains why the bounce has not happened yet.

Short-Term Capitulation Has Appeared, but the Recovery Is Missing

The short-term holder NUPL, which measures net unrealized profit or loss, has dropped to –0.30, its lowest reading this year. This level marks capitulation, a phase where most recent buyers are holding losses and are either forced to exit or emotionally flushed out.

Earlier local XRP bottom signals like this have led to clean rebounds.

In April, NUPL fell to –0.13 and XRP bounced.

In June, NUPL fell to –0.15 and XRP bounced again.

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This time, despite a deeper capitulation reading, XRP is still sliding. The missing element comes from the spent coins data.

Spent Coins Show Peak Capitulation Has Not Fully Played Out

The spent coins age band metric shows how many XRP coins from different age groups are being moved. When spent coins rise while price falls, it shows real capitulation pressure. This metric doesn’t only include the short-term holders and might also show how aggressively the long-term and mid-term holders are moving XRP.

A strong example came earlier this month.

Between November 2 and November 5, the price dropped from $2.54 to $2.15. During the same period, spent coins increased from 20.32 million to 104.85 million. This was a rise of about 416%, which marked a clear capitulation event. That ensured a local bottom formation on November 5.

The current structure, coins moving while the price corrects, is similar but much smaller.

Between November 17 and now, the XRP price dropped from $2.27 to $1.96. Spent coins increased from 45.87 million to 97.31 million, a rise of about 112%.

Since 112% is far below the earlier 416% spike, the washout phase may not be complete. If spent coins continue rising toward early-November levels, the XRP price may see more downside before the final bottom forms.

This incomplete washout explains why the short-term capitulation reading has not triggered a recovery yet. And why some more XRP price downside could be waiting.

XRP Price Levels Suggest One More Downside Zone

XRP sits close $1.95, an important support. Losing this level exposes the next zone near $1.57, which could highlight the final XRP bottom if capitulation continues. The price is currently under the support, but for a breakdown confirmation, it needs a clean daily close under $1.95.

One more risk is building on the chart. The 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) is moving closer to the 200-day average. If the 100 moves below the 200, traders treat it as a bearish crossover. And that could be a bigger short-term correction catalyst.

An exponential moving average (EMA) gives more weight to recent prices, so it reacts faster than a simple moving average and helps confirm short-term pressure.

For the XRP price to show early strength, it must first reclaim $2.08, followed by $2.26. That would invalidate the near-term bearish trend.