XRP Price Prediction: On-Chain Metrics Flash Short-Term Recovery

Updated by Ali Martinez
In Brief
  • XRP was one of the few assets in the top 100 cryptos by market capitalization that managed to end the month in green. 
  • XRP’s high social volumes were accompanied by considerably high social mentions as XRP appeared to be trending once more. 
  • At press time, while short-term recovery seemed plausible, on the long-term chart XRP’s demand dynamics were still relatively poor. 
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XRP price prediction: Ripple, the sixth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, has witnessed a sudden spike in social volumes which isn’t new for the 6th ranked token by market cap. However, can XRP chart the much-needed recovery its HODLers long for?

Updated Oct. 6, 15:00 UTC: At press time, after Ripple’s aggressive reply to the SEC, XRP price noted a 2.18% rise, trading at $0.49. On the weekly price window, XRP price is up by a staggering 14%. The $0.50 mark still acted as a crucial resistance level. While daily RSI noted a healthy rise, short-term RSI (1-hour) presented signs of overheating and a return from the overbought zone.

After charting a 55% uptick in the second half of September, XRP price was one of the few assets in the top 100 cryptos by market capitalization that managed to end the month in green. 

From a technical perspective perspective, at press time, XRP price noted 1.8% daily losses trading at $0.45. However, on-chain metrics fueled some optimism for XRP HODLers

Riding on the social wave 

XRP price prediciton has been pretty sensitive to the larger narrative on social media and Ripple news, especially due to the ongoing Ripple vs SEC case which fetches XRP the occasional pump in social volumes. 

This time though, XRP’s high social volumes were accompanied by considerably high social mentions as Ripple appeared to be trending once more. 

Source: Santiment 

Apart from high social volumes, an 8.67% uptick in the XRP trade volumes was further indicative of higher retail interest in the token. XRP trade volumes at press time were up to $1.6 billion. 

Interestingly, Ripple had witnessed a sustained increase in trade volumes throughout Sept. In fact, XRP trade volumes peaked at $7.80 billion on 23 Sept. charting a one-year high last seen in Sept. 2021. 

XRP Price Prediction: Old coins getting activated 

XRP price glorious run above the $0.50 key resistance was met with significant pressure from bears as the token saw a 15% pullback from the higher level oscillating at the $0.45 level at press time. 

XRP/USD | Source: Trading View 

Despite the 4.37% weekly and 1.8% daily losses as well as dwindling RSI, data from Santiment presented that XRP long-term MVRV was noting anomalies. 

Interestingly, XRP short-term MVRV (1-day) noted a sharp uptick while MVRV ratio (365-day) and MVRV ratio (5-year) noted a downtick. 

MVRV ratio | Source: Santiment 

Lower MVRV values indicate a smaller degree of unrealized profit in the system which could either point towards undervaluation, or poor demand dynamics. At press time, while short-term recovery seemed plausible, on the long-term chart XRP price demand dynamics were still relatively poor. 

That said, a spike in Age consumed metric, which helps spot mid to long-term price direction reversals saw a major uptick on Oct. 2 highlighting that dormant tokens could be moving with the intention of pushing prices up. 

Velocity and Age Consumed | Source: Santiment 

Furthermore, with XRP price velocity picking, it pointed toward a more vibrant network as transactions saw a rise. 

While on-chain data for XRP price presented some bullish momentum for the coin in the near term an invalidation of the thesis could lead to a pullback to the lower price level at the $0.39 mark from where XRP made a recovery on Sept 21. 

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