Both XRP (XRP) and Stellar (XLM) have been falling since Sept. 23. While the bullish structure for the former is still intact, the latter is more decisively bearish, suggesting new lows will eventually occur.
Update 29 Sept. 19:30: The price of XRP has slightly recovered, and now sits at $0.43. Well above resistance. While Stellar (XLM) is currently testing support at $0.108 and could see further downside if support is broken.
On Sept. 17, XRP broke out from a descending triangle pattern that had been in place since June 14. The breakout led to a high of $0.559 six days later, an increase of 64%. It is possible that the increase was fueled by speculation about a positive settlement in the ongoing Ripple vs SEC case.
However, the price has been falling since, leading to a low of $0.416 on Wednesday, a decrease of 25% measuring from the high. The decrease occurred despite partnership announcements with both I-Remit and Armada Music.
Throughout this downward movement, the daily RSI has also fallen below 70 (red icon), a sign of a bearish trend.
If the downward movement continues, the closest support area would be at $0.384. The area had previously acted as resistance since June and is now expected to provide support.
Future still looking bullish for XRP
Despite this ongoing fall in the daily time frame, the outlook from the weekly chart is still bullish. The main reason for this is that the price has broken out a long-term descending resistance line (dashed) and now seems to be validating it as support.
So, a re-test of the $0.384 support area would also cause validation of the line as support.
However, in order for the bullish reversal to be confirmed, the weekly RSI has to move above 50 and break out from its own descending resistance line (black). Until that occurs, the bullish reversal cannot be confirmed despite it being likely.
XLM future less positive
The price movement for XLM is more bearish than that of XRP. The price has been decreasing underneath a descending resistance line since the beginning of June. More recently, the line caused a rejection on Sept. 23 (red icon).
The ensuing decrease also caused the RSI to fall below 50, in what is considered a sign of a bearish trend. As a result, the outlook from the daily time frame is decisively bearish.
Furthermore, it seems that the price has completed an A-B-C corrective structure, in which waves A:C have had a 1:1.61 ratio. This is a common ratio in such structures.
Since the correction is moving upward, this means that the trend is still bearish. A decrease below the $0.098 lows (red line) would be expected to accelerate the rate of decrease due to the lack of support below it.
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