XRP price is under fresh pressure after a sharp rejection near its recent highs. The token is down nearly 10% over the past 24 hours and remains about 13% below the $1.67 level reached on February 15. This decline is not just a routine pullback.
It reflects a deeper shift beneath the surface: XRP whales have begun selling, while long-term holders (HODLers) are attempting to absorb that supply. The outcome of this whale–HODLer fight could play a decisive role in XRP price prediction over the coming weeks.
SponsoredRising Wedge and Bearish Divergence Show Sellers Are Defending Key Levels
XRP price has been trading inside a rising wedge pattern since early February. A rising wedge is a bearish chart structure where price moves higher inside narrowing trendlines, but the advance becomes weaker over time. This pattern typically ends with a breakdown, and the current structure points to a potential 26% correction if support fails.
Momentum signals already warned that weakness was building. Between January 26 and February 15, the XRP price formed a lower high, meaning each rally peak was weaker than the previous one.
However, during the same period, the Relative Strength Index, or RSI, formed a higher high. RSI is an indicator that measures buying and selling strength. When the price weakens, but the RSI rises, it creates a hidden bearish divergence.
This signals that the upward move is losing real support, and the existing XRP price downtrend might continue.
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This divergence played out on February 15, when the XRP price briefly surged to $1.67. Instead of breaking higher, above the bearish wedge, the candle formed a long upper wick. This wick shows sellers stepped in aggressively and forced the price lower.
Sponsored SponsoredSince that rejection, the XRP price has already dropped about 13%. The pullback has pushed the token close to the lower boundary of the rising wedge, putting the breakdown risk in focus. This technical weakness has become a central factor in XRP price prediction, as the structure now favors sellers unless buyers regain control.
XRP Whales Sell Millions While Holders Try to Prevent a Breakdown
The rejection near $1.67 was not random. On-chain data shows XRP whales were actively selling during the rally. Wallets holding between 100 million and 1 billion XRP reduced their holdings from 8.59 billion to 8.58 billion XRP. This means roughly 10 million XRP, roughly worth about $15 million at current prices, was sold during this period.
Smaller XRP whales holding between 10 million and 100 million XRP also sold heavily. Their holdings dropped from 10.91 billion (as of early February 12) to 10.87 billion XRP at press time. This represents another 40 million XRP, worth roughly $60 million, entering the market. Combined, XRP whales sold nearly 50 million XRP, worth about $75 million, during the recent rally attempt.
At the same time, long-term holders have started buying. The Hodler Net Position Change metric shows holders increased their positions from around 127 million XRP on February 13 to about 150 million XRP now, a 17% rise. This indicates some investors are attempting to absorb the whale supply and stabilize the market.
However, the scale of buying remains limited. On February 1, the same group accumulated over 337 million XRP in a single surge. Compared to that, current buying is far weaker, still down over 55%. This imbalance explains why the XRP price failed to hold its breakout and why the XRP price prediction remains uncertain.
The market is now locked in a battle between XRP whales distributing supply and holders trying to prevent a deeper correction. And the long-term holders still do not have enough strength.
XRP Price Prediction Depends on Whether $1.26 Support Holds
The most important level for XRP price now sits near $1.26. Cost basis data shows that more than 442 million XRP was accumulated between $1.27 and $1.28. Cost basis represents the price at which investors bought their coins. When the price returns to this level, holders often defend it to avoid losses.
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This makes the $1.26 zone a key chart level, the final major support before a larger breakdown. If XRP price holds above this level, stabilization could follow, and XRP price prediction could shift toward recovery. However, if XRP price breaks below $1.26, the outlook changes quickly. Yet the wedge breakdown could start the moment the 12-hour XRP price candle closes below the lower trendline of the wedge, and then $1.35.
Below this level, the next support sits near $1.16, followed by $1.06. These levels align with the full breakdown projection of the rising wedge. This means XRP price could fall toward the $1 zone if selling pressure continues. Such a move would confirm that XRP whales have gained control of the trend.
On the upside, XRP price must reclaim $1.48 to weaken the immediate bearish pressure. A stronger recovery above $1.67 would invalidate the wedge pattern and signal that buyers have regained control.
For now, XRP price prediction remains tied to this whale–holder fight. If long-term holders fail to absorb the ongoing whale selling, the rising wedge breakdown could push XRP closer to $1. The coming sessions will determine which side wins.
