Will TRON (TRX) Fall to a New All-Time Low? [Premium Analysis]

While the TRON price began an upward move, it ended on October 30. The current correction has wiped out the majority of gains made since September. However, the optimism surrounding the coin has not faded completely. This has caused trader and analyst NekoZ to tweet out his incredulity to the opinion of some posters who believe this is the right time to buy TRX.

So let me get this straight.

– Justin Sun has been shilling nonsense all year round

– The supply is about to increase by 50%

– And you think it is a good idea to buy now, out of all times…

BRB Setting buys at -50 sats on $TRX. pic.twitter.com/QZn2fuOW9L

— NekoZ (@CryptoNekoZ) December 31, 2019

One of the reasons given for not buying comes from the increased supply — since 33 billion TRX are planned to be unlocked on January 1, 2020. Their use has yet to be determined. Instead, NekoZ believes the proper level to re-enter the TRX sweepstakes are near 130 satoshis. Will the price get there? Keep reading below if you are interested in finding out.

TRON Market Cycle

The TRON price traded above 300 satoshis since its inception in 2018 until July 2019. Afterward, the price broke down and has not retested the area since. Technical indicators reveal there is an interesting pattern that has transpired twice hitherto. The RSI fell to an oversold level and generated a bullish divergence over a period of time longer than two months. A bullish cross in the MACD transpired during this time. Afterward, and upward move followed. When this pattern transpired in 2018, the price increased by roughly 200 percent afterward. The same thing transpired in September 2019. However, the price only increased by 70 percent before beginning the current correction. Since the bullish divergence transpired over a longer time period during the second time around, it is possible that the upward move will also take longer to transpire.

Descending Channel

The current upward move began on September 6. The TRON price reached a high of 245 satoshis on October 30 and has been decreasing since. It reached the 180 satoshis support area, which has previously acted as support and is the 0.618 Fib level, making it a very suitable place to initiate a reversal. Since reaching the aforementioned high, the TRX price has been trading inside a descending channel. While it has reached a support area, it has yet to show any signs of a reversal. On the contrary, it is trading below the 25- and 50-day moving averages (MAs), facing very close support from the former. The MAs have made a bearish cross. Combined with the lack of bullish divergence, this suggests that the price will continue to decrease at the rate predicted by the channel until it reaches the next support area. Once it gets there, the presence or lack of signs of a reversal will indicate whether the price breaks out or not. To conclude, the TRX price has been correcting since October 30 and has yet to show any signs of a reversal. As long as it is trading inside the current descending channel, we will consider its movement bearish and operate under the assumption that the price will eventually reach 160 satoshis.