Why This January 2019 Fractal Could Predict Bitcoin’s Price Movement

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Highlights

• The Bitcoin price might be following a fractal from January 2019.
• It is facing resistance from the 50-day moving average.
• The daily RSI is close to being rejected by the 50 line.
• The fractal predicts a $7600 bottom by April 2013.

Since the Bitcoin price has been increasing over the past week and the third block-reward halving is approaching, numerous traders and analysts have been presenting their predictions for the future price movement. One such prediction comes from prominent bitcoin trader @HsakaTrades, who outlined a fractal that suggests that the Bitcoin price will hit resistance near the current level and decrease significantly afterward. The fractal comes from the January 2019 period when the price was trading near $3500. After the proposed decrease, it indicates that the price will reach new highs.

$BTC 1D Fractal pic.twitter.com/gs30sh79Vs

— Hsaka (@HsakaTrades) March 5, 2020

Let’s take a closer look at the Bitcoin price movement in both these periods and attempt to find any similarities that can help in predicting the future BTC price movement

Previous Bitcoin Price Movement

The fractal from early 2019 shows an upward move that began on December 16 and continued for five days. After the increase, the Bitcoin price completed its correction at the 0.618 Fib level of the entire decrease. The candlestick that allegedly resembles the one from today comes from January 19, 2020, 35 days after the upward move began. It created a long upper wick that served to validate both the previous support area and the 50-day MA. The same day, the 50 line rejected the RSI — which fell sharply, afterward. The Bitcoin price decreased for 20 days after this rejection before beginning yet another upward move.

Current Movement

The current movement shares numerous similarities with that in January 2019. First, the Bitcoin price has retraced between the 0.5-0.618 Fib levels of the entire upward move. In addition, it is facing resistance from the previous support area and the 50-day MA — both of which also occurred during the initial movement. Finally, the RSI has met resistance at the 50 line. Measuring the time period from the beginning of the upward move to the current daily candlestick gives us 63 days, which is 1.8 times more than the length of the original movement. Using the same ratio for the decrease, we can presume that the price will make a bottom after 38 days, on April 13.

Fractal Comparison

Now, to compare the rate of increase/decrease — the movement in January 2019 had a magnitude of 36 percent, while the current one measures 52.7 percent. Again, using the same ratio for the decrease, we get a low of $7600, which — as we found in the previous section — could be reached on April 13. To conclude, the Bitcoin price might be following a fractal from January 2019. If it continues doing so, it will reach a low of $7600 by April 13.