When Will Bitcoin Reach a New All-Time High Price?

Cryptocurrency trader @Inmortalcrypto posted a Bitcoin chart in which he compares the previous correction to the current one. More specifically, the time it took for the previous all-time high to be broken is measured and a projection is made on when the next all-time high might be reached.

According to the chart above, a new all-time high will be reached in December 2020. However, since it took 1,134 days for a new ATH to be reached after that reached in 2013, projecting the same this time around would lead to a new ATH being reached in January 2021. However, the time periods for the two corrections are not identical. After the 2013 high, it took the price 413 days to reach a bottom, while the same movement transpired over 371 days to do the same after the 2017 high. Interestingly, both these lows touched the 200-week MA, below which the BTC price has never traded, with the exception of some long wicks. The price touched this MA once more in both corrections. The time period between these two lows was different in both cases, highlighting another dissimilarity between the two movements. An interesting claim made in the tweet is that the high reached in June 2016 corresponds to the current movement. We will analyze it in detail in the next section.

Current Movement

In July 2017, BTC moved above the main resistance level, which was found at $670. After reaching a high of $811, the price dropped sharply below the $670 level. After a failed attempt at moving upwards, BTC continued its decrease until $472, where it validated the 200-day moving average (MA). While the RSI was heavily overbought, there was no bearish divergence present. Furthermore, it is quite interesting that BTC failed at a relatively neutral zone, with no clear resistance overhead.

Currently, the price generated a very similar drop on May 7. The decrease continued until the price validated the 200-day MA, and the price has been increasing since. While the initial drop is similar, and the RSI was overbought without any bearish divergence, the two movements do not share any other similarities. First, the price is trading very close to the $10,400 resistance level. Next, the increase has almost reached the May 7 top, while in 2017 the price did not come close to retracing fully before resuming its downward movement. A more similar move would be an increase above this $10,400 area and then a breakdown prior to reaching the $12,000 resistance level.

Bitcoin Chart By Tradingview