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What Should Investors Expect From Bitcoin (BTC) in October 2024?

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In Brief

  • Bitcoin broke $65,000, sparking optimism for a rally toward $70,000, but long-term holders may sell, adding pressure.
  • BTC's rise depends on potential Fed rate cuts and favorable political climate supporting crypto innovation.
  • A 35% rally could push BTC to $81,556, but failure to sustain momentum may lead to a pullback below $65,000.
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Bitcoin (BTC) breached the $65,000 barrier, instilling confidence in investors that a rally may be imminent. This move has sparked optimism that BTC could soon push beyond $70,000, a price last seen nearly three months ago. 

However, long-term holders (LTHs) are posing a potential threat, as they may look to sell and book profits, which could hinder further upward momentum.

Bitcoin Needs This to Reach $70,000

Bitcoin’s price is known to perform well in the fourth quarter. However, BTC’s rally is still dependent on more than just sentiment and investor behavior. 

In an interview with BeInCrypto, Matt Mena, Crypto Research Strategist at 21.co explained what other factors could affect Bitcoin’s rise to $70,000.

“One key catalyst is the Federal Reserve’s potential interest rate cuts, which would likely drive a risk-on sentiment across financial markets as investors move capital out of lower-yielding assets like fixed income into riskier assets such as equities and cryptocurrencies in search of higher returns. Lower interest rates also inject liquidity into the market—a factor that Bitcoin has historically benefited from, given its strong correlation with the global M2 money supply. As liquidity rises, we often see an increase in valuations of risk assets, including Bitcoin,” Mena told BeInCrypto.

Mena also stated that the upcoming elections in the United States will play a major role in shaping BTC’s trajectory.

“Additionally, the political landscape is increasingly favorable, with both presidential nominees endorsing crypto innovation in the US, signaling a more supportive regulatory environment. This political endorsement could enhance investor confidence and catalyze further capital inflows into the market as regulatory concerns diminish,” Mena stated..

Read more: What Happened at the Last Bitcoin Halving? Predictions for 2024

But before $70,000, as Bitcoin reaches $65,000, it also hits a near two-month high, prompting long-term holders to consider selling. Historically, LTHs tend to sell when prices peak and their selling pressure could significantly impact the market.

The Liveliness indicator, which tracks long-term holder activity, is showing an uptick. This indicates that LTHs have started to liquidate positions, which could lead to a price correction. Liveliness rises as long-term holders sell and decreases when they HODL.

Bitcoin Liveliness.
Bitcoin Liveliness. Source: Glassnode

LTHs are considered the backbone of Bitcoin’s stability, and if they begin selling in large quantities, it could lead to increased volatility. Their selling activity could prevent Bitcoin from sustaining higher prices, potentially causing a pullback in the short term.

BTC Price Prediction: Shift Ahead

Bitcoin is currently trading at $65,371, having successfully turned $65,000 into support. The next major target is to turn $70,000 into a solid support level. This will be key to continuing the upward trend for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin has already broken out of a bullish symmetrical triangle pattern, suggesting that the cryptocurrency could rise by as much as 35%, with a potential target of $81,556. However, a more realistic outlook places the next target at $70,000 as BTC continues to gain momentum.

Read more: Bitcoin Halving History: Everything You Need To Know

Bitcoin Price Analysis
Bitcoin Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

A rally beyond $70,000 will require strong investor support and favorable macroeconomic conditions. If these factors do not materialize, and long-term holders increase selling pressure, Bitcoin may struggle even to breach $68,500. In such a scenario, BTC could lose its $65,000 support, invalidating the bullish outlook and potentially leading to a further decline.

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Disclaimer

In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.

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Aaryamann Shrivastava
Aaryamann Shrivastava is a technical and on-chain analyst at BeInCrypto, where he specializes in market reports on cryptocurrencies from diverse sectors, including Telegram Apps, liquid staking, Layer 1s, meme coins, artificial intelligence (AI), metaverse, internet of things (IoT), Ethereum ecosystem, and Bitcoin. Previously, he conducted market analysis and technical assessments of various altcoins at FXStreet and AMBCrypto, covering all aspects of the crypto industry, including...
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