Using Elliott Waves To Determine Bitcoin’s Future Movement

In our previous article, we discussed three possible Elliott wave patterns. Two of these have been invalidated, so we will look at the one possibility that has not been invalidated and a new one that is made possible by the recent movement.

Bitcoin B-Wave

One of the possibilities that we analyzed is that the price has finished a five-wave Elliott formation on June 1. Afterward, it broke down from the long-term ascending support line during the A wave. Currently, it is in the B-wave, which could go towards $10,000 in order to validate the support line BTC just broke down from. Besides the breakdown from the ascending support line, the volume profile is also consistent with this wave count, since it was highest on wave 3 and has been decreasing since.

In the short-term, the sub-wave count shows that wave A transpired in three A-B-C corrections, meaning the entire correction is flat, with a wave count of 3-3-5. In flat corrections, wave B should retrace at least 90% of wave A, so BTC could go all the way to $10,277, before eventually beginning the C wave. Furthermore, the C wave is often extended in such corrections, being larger than the A wave, so a sharp correction would be expected.

A similar decrease is outlined by well-known trader @davthewave, who has used a fractal instead of Elliott wave theory to come to the conclusion.

Fifth Wave

Another possibility is that the price has just begun its fifth wave, also measured from the March 13 bottom. In this case, what was previously wave A of an A-B-C correction, is instead wave 4 of the impulsive upward move. In this wave count, wave 3 is extended until the June 1 high, with the sub-waves being shown in yellow. What does not fit very well with this wave count is the fact that the price has already broken down from the ascending support line that had been in place since March 13.

The sub-wave count for wave 4 remains the same as in the first section. What changes now is that instead of finishing the final C wave, the price will complete wave 3-4-5. Using Fibonacci levels, we can arrive at the conclusion that wave 3 could end at $10,300, so the fifth would likely go towards $10,500, depending on where the fourth sub-wave ends. It is possible that the fifth wave is truncated, in which case the high reached would be lower than that on June 1. However, in order for this possibility to be correct, the fourth sub-wave would have to go into the territory of the second.