This week in crypto, several US economic data releases will influence Bitcoin (BTC) and crypto market sentiment in general.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s price still hovers near the $87,000 threshold, defending against further downside despite being devoid of sufficient catalysts to activate its upside potential.
US Economic Data With Crypto Implication This Week
This week, five US economic data sets, including services and manufacturing PMI, consumer confidence, initial jobless claims, GDP, and PCE Index, interest crypto traders and investors. Here is how they could sway sentiment.
Services and Manufacturing PMI
The S&P Global US Services and Manufacturing PMI data, due on Monday, March 24, will gauge the health of these critical sectors. Recent trends show manufacturing holding strong at 52.7, while services follow at 51.0.
Strong manufacturing and services PMI readings could boost risk appetite, potentially lifting Bitcoin as investors seek high-yield assets. Conversely, readings below 50 would signal economic contraction, stoking recession fears and effectively driving safe-haven flows away from crypto.
With Trump’s pro-growth policies gaining traction, any upside surprise could amplify bullish sentiment, though persistent weakness may temper enthusiasm.
“A busy week as we come to the end of Q1 2025. How will the markets close out the first quarter of Trump’s new term?” analyst Mark Cullen of AlphaBTC posed.
Consumer Confidence
Tuesday’s Consumer Confidence Index from The Conference Board, expected around 10 AM ET, will reflect spending attitudes amid economic uncertainty. Despite solid job growth, February’s drop to 98.3—its steepest since 2021—hints at unease.
A rebound to the median forecast of 95.0 could signal waning retail optimism, a key driver for Bitcoin’s retail-heavy market, pushing prices higher.
However, if confidence sinks further, dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations might grow, offering mixed outcomes. Liquidity hopes could buoy BTC price, but risk-off moves might dominate.
Initial Jobless Claims
Thursday’s Initial Jobless Claims report will track labor market strength, showing the number of US citizens filing for unemployment insurance.
The 223,000 reading for the week ending March 15, slightly below the expected 224,000, suggested a cooling economy, a focal point for Fed policy. It extended positive sentiment after the week ending March 8, where initial jobless claims in the US were 220,000, compared to an expected 225,000.
This time, however, the median forecast is a slight bump in initial jobless claims to 226,000 for the week ending March 22.
Higher claims could spark recession jitters, nudging investors toward Bitcoin as a hedge against instability. On the other hand, lower claims might bolster traditional markets, siphoning capital from crypto. With the Trump administration eyeing labor boosts, this data could pivot sentiment sharply.
GDP
The GDP second revision for Q4 2024, out Thursday, is forecasted at 2.3%. Stronger growth could dampen Bitcoin’s appeal as a risk asset if investors favor equities, especially with revised 2024 figures showing a 3% annual rise.
A weaker print might fuel rate-cut speculation, enhancing BTC’s allure as a store of value. Crypto traders are watching how this aligns with recent Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) updates signaling strong consumer spending.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin OG and economist George Selgin challenge claims that a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve would boost GDP. The finance expert argues that Bitcoin’s price growth does not directly or significantly influence a country’s economic output.
“…But that [Bitcoin] price has no definite and substantial bearing on GDP, so by stocking up on Bitcoin the gov’t does not grow the GDP,” he explained.
This standpoint stems from Trump’s March 2025 Executive Order creating a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve using forfeited assets. Selgin and others criticize this as a misuse of public funds.
PCE Index
Meanwhile, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE Index (Personal Consumption Expenditures), is due on Friday. The index for February will follow January’s 2.5% year-on-year (YoY) rise.
A hotter-than-expected core PCE (excluding food and energy) could delay rate cuts, pressuring Bitcoin downward as tighter policy looms. A softer reading might ignite a rally, reinforcing hopes of monetary easing. With inflation stickiness lingering, this release could dictate BTC’s near-term trajectory.
Crypto markets remain on edge, with these events poised to shape Bitcoin’s path amid changing US economic narratives.
BeInCrypto data shows BTC was trading for $86,712, up by over 3% in the last 24 hours.
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