Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, said that President Donald Trump’s executive order could have a significant effect on Bitcoin’s (BTC) four-year cycle.
While Hougan acknowledged that the market has not fully overcome the cycle, he expects any pullbacks to be shorter and less intense compared to previous years.
Impact of Trump’s Executive Order On Bitcoin’s Cycle
In his latest weekly memo, Hougan highlighted the President’s executive order and the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) recent pro-crypto shifts as major catalysts for Bitcoin’s mainstream adoption.
On January 23, President Trump signed an official order to establish a “national digital asset stockpile.” As a result, crypto inflows surged to $1.9 billion.
“It created a pathway for the largest Wall Street banks and investors to move aggressively into the space,” Hougan wrote.
According to Hougan, the current crypto cycle started in March 2023. This was when Grayscale secured a significant early victory in its legal battle with the SEC over a Bitcoin ETF.
The ETFs launched in January 2024, with hundreds of billions of dollars entering the market from new investors. Nonetheless, Hougan sees the executive order as a catalyst for an even more significant transformation.
“But the full mainstreaming of crypto—the one contemplated by Trump’s executive order, where banks custody crypto alongside other assets, stablecoins are integrated broadly into the global payments ecosystem, and the largest institutions establish positions in crypto—I’m convinced will bring trillions,” the note read.
Notably, Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is a pattern driven by halving events. The price typically experiences a bearish accumulation phase. This is followed by a bull market due to reduced supply and then a bear market after the peak. This cycle repeats approximately every four years as the block reward for miners is halved.
BTC experienced downturns in 2014, 2018, and 2022. If this pattern holds, the next pullback could occur in 2026. Despite this, Hougan remained optimistic about crypto’s long-term trajectory.
“The crypto space has matured; there’s a greater variety of buyers and more value-oriented investors than ever before. I expect volatility, but I’m not sure I’d bet against crypto in 2026,” Hougan acknowledged.
He also predicted 2025 to be a favorable year for crypto.
“We’re on the record predicting that bitcoin’s price will double this year to above $200,000, driven by flows into ETFs and bitcoin purchases by corporations and governments,” stated the CIO.
However, Hougan added that the forecast might be conservative. Lastly, he pointed out that the impact of Trump’s executive order and broader regulatory shifts will unfold over years rather than months.
According to Hougan, establishing a new crypto regulatory framework will take at least a year. Moreover, Wall Street firms may require even more time to adapt.
Meanwhile, the CIO stated that leverage will build, excesses will emerge, and bad actors will surface. This may potentially lead to a sharp pullback.
Nonetheless, Hougan believes any correction is likely to be “shorter” and “shallower.” This is because of the crypto market’s maturity and a more diverse, value-driven investor base.
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