This 2019 Bitcoin Fractal Predicts a Further 50% Price Increase

In May 2019 Bitcoin pumped hard and eventually hit a 2019 high of $13,000 in June. The price has not been able to cross above this threshold since. These similarities were outlined by well-known trader @inmortalcrypto, who tweeted a Bitcoin price chart that shows the current price movement compared to that of May 2019.

Inmortal suggests that the price will follow a similar path, by first moving above the April 30 high of $9,460, and eventually increasing above $10,000. In this analysis, we will compare the price movements in these two periods in order to determine if BTC is likely to take the path outlined in the tweet.

Bitcoin Rally Side-By-Side Comparison

Both movements are shown in the chart below — 2020 on top compared to the same time frame in 2019 below. The first thing that stands out is the difference in the magnitude of the initial decrease. While the price decreased by almost 12% from the April 30 high in 2020, it did so by 28% in 2019. If we keep the same ratio, the price is likely to break out and reach $9,800 before consolidating and decreasing below the $9,400 line once more.

Individual Comparison

The initial high reached on May 13, 2019, was preceded by a very significant upward movement in which the price increased by 103% in 42 days. The high was reached inside a significant resistance area, and the RSI was extremely overbought. Additionally, there was significant overhead resistance. Despite these bearish signs, the price proceeded to increase by a further 51% in 46 days, reaching a high of $13,764. In order to measure this increase, we have used the closing prices instead of the wick high, since there was a considerable difference in price between the two, and BTC did not come close to reaching the wick high again.

When looking at the preceding movement, Bitcoin’s current price action is very similar to that in May 2019. The April 30, 2020 high was preceded by an 87% increase across 47 days, a very similar rate to that in May 2019. In addition, the high was reached inside a significant resistance area and was combined with an overbought value in the RSI. Interestingly, the price is trading directly beneath the long-term resistance line which was created with the previously mentioned wick high in July 2019. If the rest of the fractal is followed, and BTC increases by a further 50% over the next 46 days, it will reach a high of around $13,600 in June 2020.

To conclude, there are several similarities between the current price movement and that of May 2019. In order for the fractal to remain valid, BTC has to break towards $9,800 soon. If the fractal is followed in its entirety, the price could reach a high of $13,600 in June.