Solana (SOL) price has rallied over 14% in the past week, climbing to around $190. But even with this strong push, it still trades nearly 35% below its all-time high of $260.
To get there, SOL first needs to break the psychological $200 level. And while price alone doesn’t tell the full story, on-chain and derivatives data hint that this move could just be getting started.
SOPR Signals Point to Bullish Continuation
One of the clearest signs of strong investor confidence comes from the SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) metric. SOPR tells us whether people who are selling their SOL are doing so at a profit or a loss. When SOPR is above 1, it means sellers are booking profits. If it’s below 1, they’re likely selling at a loss.
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Over the last month, SOL’s SOPR has dipped multiple times, only to rebound in tandem with the price. This “reset” is healthy; it shows that short-term profit-taking happens without disrupting the uptrend. Notably, past dips in SOPR that stayed near 1 often coincided with price moving higher shortly after.
For instance, on June 27, SOPR dropped to 0.97, and the SOL price moved from $142 to $154 in three days. Similarly, on July 19, SOPR slipped to 1.007 while SOL price traded around $177. Two days later, on July 21, the SOL price broke $190.
As of now, SOPR is hovering around 1.02, indicating that most sellers are still in profit but not rushing to dump. This typically signals that holders expect higher prices and are holding back supply.
Derivatives Market Shows No Overheating
Backing up the SOPR signal is the funding rate and open interest data. Solana’s funding rates are slightly positive at around 0.0152. That’s high enough to show bullish momentum, but not too high to raise red flags about an overheated market (not high leverage).
When funding gets too high, it usually means too many traders are over-leveraged on longs, increasing the risk of a price pullback. That’s not the case here.
More importantly, open interest (OI) has surged, crossing above $9.52 billion, the highest level in months. This rise in OI, while the SOL price also moves up, suggests that new money is entering long positions. Simply put, traders aren’t just riding an old trend; they’re betting on further upside.
Spikes in OI without wild funding rate fluctuations point to continued rallies, especially when paired with SOPR stability.
Solana Price Structure Hints at a Push Toward $218
The Solana price is currently trading at $190, flipping the previous resistance levels of $183 and $184 into support. At present, strong resistance exists at $196, $198, and $199.
If the SOL price can flip the $196–$199 range into support, the next strong resistance lies around $218, almost 14.70% from the current levels.
As long as the SOPR remains near 1 and OI continues to rise without overheating funding rates, bulls still have the upper hand.
While a quick correction might be normal, any dip under $168 can invalidate the bullish trend in the short term. The entire SOL price structure can weaken if the price falls under $161, which at present looks unlikely, courtesy of the bullish market sentiments.
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