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Solana (SOL) Just Flashed a 5-Year Bullish Signal; Could a Breakout Be Next?

3 mins
Updated by Harsh Notariya
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In Brief

  • Solana’s transaction count just hit its highest level since December 2020, when the price was under $2
  • Netflows show steady outflows, but Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) flipped under 1; a cautionary sign
  • Solana price sits inside a falling wedge; the MACD line just crossed the signal line, but the momentum is still weak
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Solana just printed a rare crossover between a key network metric and SOL price, something that hasn’t happened since the early days of its first bull run in 2020. But this time, the price is lagging behind, even as the network shows renewed strength. 

Could this be the signal that lights the next leg up?

Transaction Count Hits 5-Year High, But SOL Price Isn’t Following Yet

Solana’s number of transactions has surged past 70 million. Yet, that is not the best part.

According to the chart, the last time the transaction count line crossed above the price line, a multi-year SOL price rally occurred. This time, in July 2025, the price remains sluggish, around $151, and a similar crossover has happened.

SOL price and transaction count crossover: Glassnode
SOL price and transaction count crossover: Glassnode

Netflows Tilt Bearish, Despite Exchange Exits

Data from Coinglass shows Solana has seen steady outflows through early July. That usually points to accumulation. But the outflows have slowed down in recent days, and there’s no spike in inflows either.

In short, no one’s dumping SOL, but no one’s rushing to buy either.

This balance may explain why the SOL price hasn’t broken out yet. Traders seem to be waiting for a stronger signal before taking a side.

SOL price and netflow: Coinglass
SOL price and netflow: Coinglass

SOPR Flips Below 1; Sign of Panic?

Solana’s Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), which tracks whether coins are being sold at a profit or loss, has hovered just below 1.0 since late June. That typically means holders are selling at a loss or break-even, often seen during market bottoms.

When SOPR drops below 1, it shows capitulation; traders are exiting positions at a loss. But when SOPR starts to rise again toward 1, it suggests most panic sellers are gone, and only long-term or break-even holders remain.

SOL price and SOPR
SOL price and SOPR: Glassnode

In this case, SOPR rising from 0.95 back toward 1.0 indicates that forced selling may be cooling off. Combined with the slowing exchange outflows, it suggests Solana is stabilizing, or rather, the bottom for this cycle might be forming.

SOL Price Structure: Falling Wedge Still in Play, But Momentum Lags

The Solana price has stayed locked inside a broad falling wedge since early January 2025. The structure is still intact, but SOL has tested the upper trendline multiple times without a breakout. That line now sits just under $155, and the price has been hovering close without clearing it.

Solana price analysis: TradingView
Solana price analysis: TradingView

A confirmed move above $155 could shift the momentum. If that happens, upside targets sit at $169 and $180, both acting as major resistance zones from prior highs.

But if bulls fail to break the wedge, there’s a risk of sliding back into the old sideways band. This support zone between $140 and $125 has trapped the SOL price before. Losing that zone would weaken the entire structure and possibly lead to deeper losses. The wedge is wide enough that even smaller dips won’t break the setup, but if SOL drops below $125, the pattern may no longer hold weight.

SOL price and MACD: TradingView

Supporting the pattern is the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), trying to turn bullish. The MACD line (blue) has flipped above the signal line (orange), a classic early momentum indicator. The flip happened near a swing low, confirming bullish strength and a bottoming attempt, also indicated by SOPR. 

But here’s the catch: the histogram bars, which represent the distance between the two lines, are fading. That signals a weakening upside momentum.

MACD is a momentum indicator that helps spot early trend reversals based on two moving lines and a histogram.

Solana is trading near $151. Unless it decisively breaks the $155, the falling wedge stays in control.

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Disclaimer

In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.

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Ananda Banerjee
Ananda Banerjee is a technical copy/content writer specializing in web3, crypto, Blockchain, AI, and SaaS — in a career spanning over 12 years. After completing his M.Tech in Telecommunication engineering from RCCIIT, India, Ananda was quick to pair his technical acumen with content creation in a career that saw him contributing to Towardsdatascience, Hackernoon, Dzone, Elephant Journal, Business2Community, and more. At BIC, Ananda currently contributes long-form content discussing trading...
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