Pump.fun’s native token, PUMP, is showing signs of exhaustion after a dramatic breakout. The token soared to a local high of $0.006899 on July 16, riding Solana’s meme coin wave and renewed market attention.
But within hours, the PUMP price collapsed to a low of $0.005294, marking a sharp 23.2% drop. The steep correction comes amid heavy profit-taking by early holders, and signs suggest further downside pressure unless key levels are reclaimed.
Smart Money Starts Dumping as Realized Profits Surge
The latest on-chain data reveals an aggressive round of profit-taking by top holders. According to PnL data, the top 10 wallets alone realized over $17 million in profits, with the leaderboard showing traders cashing out completely.
Wallet CxSZ84Ui booked $1.79 million, while eight others followed with $1.5 million or more in realized gains. Notably, over 95% of top wallets are now holding 0% of their initial positions, signaling total exits.
Meanwhile, smart money wallets, wallets tagged for high win rates, have seen a 34.5% drop in holdings, now sitting at 3.17 billion tokens, down from over 4.3 billion earlier in the day. The balance for PUMP whale wallets also slipped by 3.63%, suggesting that large players aren’t just watching; they’re actively selling.
That means the PUMP buyback simply hasn’t outweighed sustained sell pressure. Fees spent on repurchases are being canceled out or even surpassed by profit-taking from whales unloading huge stakes.
On the flip side, the unrealized PUMP profit leaderboard reveals a dangerous setup: wallets still holding nearly $10 million in paper gains. For instance, wallet 9mKy1K8S shows $1.38 million in unrealized profit with 100% still held, indicating that these traders could become the next wave of sellers if the price weakens further. Or they might just be the reason for a deeper PUMP price weakening stint.
Supertrend Flips Bearish, Matching Whale Exit Behavior
The Supertrend indicator has now turned red on the 1-hour chart — a sign that the short-term trend has flipped bearish. This lines up with what we’re already seeing from large wallet holders. After riding the rally, whales have started pulling out, and that exit seems to be dragging the price down.
When big players stop buying, and the trend indicator also flips, it’s often a sign that more downside could be ahead.
For those unfamiliar, the Supertrend is a trend-following indicator that reacts to both price and volatility. When the price falls below a certain range, the line flips from green to red, signaling a shift from bullish to bearish momentum.
PUMP Price Risks Breakdown Below Key Support
The price chart tells a clearer story. We’ve drawn Fibonacci retracement levels from the local high at $0.00689 to the swing low at $0.00529. As of writing, the PUMP price is trading around $0.00535, dangerously close to breaking below the Fibonacci base (0.0 level).
Key levels have already been breached. The 0.382 retracement at $0.00590 and the 0.236 level at $0.00567 failed to hold as support. If $0.00529 breaks, it opens up the risk of cascading selloffs, especially with so many wallets still in unrealized profit territory.
The bearish thesis holds unless bulls can reclaim the 0.618 Fibonacci level at $0.00628, which now acts as the strongest resistance/support. A clean break above that could signal buyer re-entry and set up a retest of $0.00689.
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