Predictions for 2022: What does the rest of the year have in store? A lot, according to William Quigley, the cryptocurrency fund manager at Magnetic, and the co-founder of Tether, the most traded cryptocurrency in the world. And, he’s the co-founder of WAX, a purpose-built blockchain for video game virtual items.
Here are some of his predictions, including thoughts about how long it will take crypto to recover.
Valuations
Valuations in many private crypto companies are likely overstated and will have to earn their way into those valuations. Massive VC funding also weighs on these companies as that capital must be paid off first before any common shareholders receive proceeds from a sale. Many first-time entrepreneurs don’t understand this dynamic.
Shocks
The two biggest potential shocks to the crypto industry are stablecoin legislation and categorizing crypto as securities. This will likely play out in the US by 2024.
Predictions for 2022: NFTs
Despite a slowdown in NFT sales volume, NFTs are still popular and not going away.
Predictions for 2022: Metaverse
Predictions about the size and future impact of the Metaverse have little credibility because the term itself is undefined. There is no standard definition. It’s become an amorphous marketing term. If what people mean by Metaverse is a permissionless and open blockchain-based environment, that will not come from established Web 2 companies. That will come from new entrants. Which means it will take a long time to develop.
Investment Needed
The market size of the Metaverse will eventually be big, but it will take a decade at least. Massive investment is needed to get there. In addition, there won’t be one Metaverse, the name itself should make that evident. There will be thousands of Metaverses, most not interoperable.
Creeping Big Tech
Apple and Google are opposed to the core principles of blockchain-based environments. No Metaverse from them will be included the sought-after benefits of blockchain that make the Metaverse concept a desirable alternative to the current internet ecosystem.
Predictions for 2022: DeFi
Decentralized finance has performed reasonably well during the crypto meltdown. DeFi gets conflated with centralized blockchain businesses like Celsius, Luna and BlockFi which performed poorly when hit with dislocations in the crypto market.
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