Outlining Potential Ethereum Correction Scenarios

On June 25, the Ethereum price broke down from an ascending support line that had previously been in place since March 13.  This is a sign that the upward trend has likely ended, and will see ETH continue moving downwards.

Ethereum Loses Support

The main resistance and support areas are found at $250 and $170, respectively, with the latter being the 0.5 Fib level of the entire upward move.

The short-term chart outlines the decrease which began on June 24. While the price purportedly initiated a reversal, it ended as soon as it reached the 0.5 Fib level of the decrease. After this happened, ETH resumed its downward movement. The price is also facing resistance from its 200-hour moving average (MA) and has been doing so since June 24. While the price briefly moved above this MA yesterday, it proceeded to fall back below, making it likely that the increase was a fakeout.

Wave Count

As for the longer-term movement, cryptocurrency trader @Glowto1994 outlined a chart in which Ethereum drops to $50.

The wave count outlined is a W-X-Y correction, drawn from the January 2018 high. If correct, it seems that the price is in the final portion of the Y-wave, which could end near $45, which is also a strong support area from 2017. A price increase above the June 2019 high of $363 would invalidate this wave count and suggest that the price has already reached a bottom. The long-term wave count in the chart below is shown in yellow, the medium-term in white, and the sub-wave count in orange.

However, if we are going by Elliott wave rules, the current wave is more likely to end near $15. The Y-wave is transpiring inside an A-B-C formation, in which waves A and C are often equal in length. Projecting the length of wave A to the top of Wave B gives us a target of $15. Coincidentally, drawing a parallel channel connecting the beginning and top of waves A and B, respectively, gives us the same target. Finally, this is also a support area created by the highs of 2016. This is quite a long-term wave count, however, and at the time of writing, we cannot confidently state that there is any real potential for a $15 target.

To conclude, the Ethereum price has likely begun a long-term correction, which is expected to take the price all the way back to $170. A long-term wave count that has yet to be confirmed suggests that Ethereum could decrease all the way to $45.