Outlining Monero’s (XMR) Wave Count In Order to Determine Its Top

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In Brief
  • XMR is trading in a long-term A-B-C corrective movement with a target of $179.

  • The price has likely begun wave 5.

  • Declines below $115 and $95 would invalidate the majority of the bullish continuation scenarios.

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The Monero (XMR) price is likely nearing the end of a long-term A-B-C corrective pattern, which should end near $180.

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This is part two of the Monero analysis. Click here for the first part.

Long-Term Count

Beginning on Dec 2018, it seems that XMR began an A-B-C corrective formation (shown in white below), and is currently in the C wave.

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Based on the length of the A wave, the two most likely targets for the top of C are at $119.50 and $179, in which the A:C waves have a ratio of 1:1 and 1:1.61, respectively.

The first target has already been surpassed, so the $179 area is the most likely to act as the top

XMR Chart By TradingView

Where Will Wave 5 End?

A closer look at wave C reveals a five-wave formation (shown in black below), inside which the price is currently in wave 5, which began in July 2020.

Wave 5 is created by another five sub-waves (blue) in which the price is also in sub-wave 5. This indicates that the price is quickly approaching a top.

Using the 2.61 Fib retracement of waves 1 – 3 (black) and sub-waves 1 – 3 (blue) gives a similar target of $149 and $155, respectively, even though this is below the target from the previous section.

Therefore, a closer look at lower time-frames is required in order to determine where the top will occur. The next section will be a close-up view of sub-wave 5 (blue).

XMR Chart By TradingView

A Look At XMR’s Sub-Waves

Inside sub-wave 5, we can see another five-wave formation (blue), the price currently trading in wave 3, which is taking place in five sub-waves (orange).

If the count is correct, the entire formation could end between $146 – $157. A decline below the sub-wave 2 low of $93.54 would invalidate this particular wave count.

XMR Chart By TradingView

A close-up view of the 2-hour time-frame gives us our final minor sub-wave count (red), which predicts another rally towards $141 – $150, fitting with the analysis from the previous section.

A fall below the $115.21 (w1) high would invalidate this minor formation, but would still allow for the previous bullish formation to play out.

XMR Chart By TradingView

To conclude, the XMR price should continue rallying towards $155 and possibly $179.

For BeInCrypto’s Bitcoin analysis, click here!

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Valdrin discovered cryptocurrencies while he was getting his MSc in Financial Markets from the Barcelona graduate school of Economics. Shortly after graduating, he began writing for several different cryptocurrency related websites as a freelancer before eventually taking on the role of BeInCrypto's Senior Analyst.

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