The Monero (XMR) price has been decreasing since it was rejected by the long-term $250 resistance area on Feb. 20.
Despite the rejection, XMR seems to be holding up above the minor $185 support area and should continue increasing.
XMR Long-Term Levels
XMR has been decreasing since reaching a high of $287 on Feb. 20. The rejection occurred right at the 0.5 Fib retracement level measuring from the all-time high price of $476.
Technical indicators are mixed. While the MACD is increasing, the Stochastic oscillator has made a bearish cross. The RSI has formed bearish divergence, but a drop has already occurred as a result.
If successful in breaking out, the next resistance area would be at $380.
The daily chart shows that XMR has bounced at the $185 minor support area, a level that previously acted as resistance, creating a long lower wick in the process.
While this is a sign of buying pressure, technical indicators are neutral since both the Stochastic oscillator and the RSI are at critical junctures as to whether the trend is bullish or bearish.
A breakdown from this level would confirm the bearish trend, while a significant bounce would do the opposite.
The shorter-term two-hour chart is more bullish since it shows a breakout from a descending resistance line. In addition, both the MACD and the RSI are increasing.
If XMR manages to clear the $230 resistance area, it would confirm the bullish trend.
The wave count suggests that XMR is in an extended wave five of a bullish impulse (white) that began on Mar. 2020. The sub-wave count is in orange.
A potential target for the top of this move is near $360, using an external retracement on sub-wave four (orange) and a Fib projection on waves 1-3 (white).
This would also align with the long-term resistance area outlined in the first section.
Cryptocurrency trader @Elliotwavefrog outlined an XMR/BTC chart, stating that the Jan. low is likely to be a local low since it validated a breakout level from 2016.
On Jan. 8, XMR reached a low of ₿0.0034 and has been increasing since. In addition, the RSI has formed significant bullish divergence.
Nevertheless, until the previous breakdown area at ₿0.0063 area is reclaimed, the trend is bearish.
To conclude, while XMR’s trend direction is unclear, it’s likely to be bullish as long as it doesn’t close below $185.
While XMR/BTC has been showing potential bullish reversal signs, the reclaim of the ₿0.006 area is required to confirm the bullish trend.