On Mar 9, 2019, the price of Litecoin (LTC) reached a high close to $60. It has been on a downtrend since.
In our Mar 6 Litecoin analysis, we predicted that the price of LTC would trade inside an ascending parallel channel falling to support levels of around $48. Prices have remained in the channel, but they have been trading at levels much higher than projected.
Based on today’s analysis, we believe that LTC has reached or is near to reaching its top and that a price decrease is still forthcoming.
Key Highlights For March 13
- Price has been on a downward trend since Mar 9.
- It has created bearish divergence in the RSI and the MACD.
- There are resistance areas near $60 and $70.
- There are support areas near $50, $42 and $32.
Resistance Turned Support
The price of LTC on Bitfinex was analyzed at 30-minute intervals from Mar 9 to Mar 13.
The price reached Mar 9 high of $60.853. It has been making lower highs since. Tracing these lows gives us a descending resistance line.
The dates in which the line was touched are Mar 9 and Mar 11.
The resistance line can effectively act as a ceiling to price—theoritically preventing further movement above the line. Theoretically, it will trace the upper limits of the price for a given period.
However, if a breakout above resistance occurs, it can initiate a rapid price increase. A breakout occurred for LTC on Mar 12. As prices continued trading above resistance, it appeared as if the resistance line had become a support line.
In the case of support, the upper limits of price are traced. Theoretically, the price should not drop below this line. When breakouts occur, new resistance and support typically are created.
Furthermore, while a first possible point is traced on the line, this support may not prove stable. If prices continue fluctuating above the resistance, an entirely new support line may emerge. At the current time, it is only possible but not certain that former resistance will become current support.
Combining moving average convergence divergence (MACD) and relative strength index (RSI) bullish/bearish divergence with support/resistance essentially predicts price fluctuations.
The MACD is a trend indicator that shows the relationship between two moving averages (long and short-term) and the price. It is used to measure the strength of a move. The RSI is an indicator which calculates the size of the changes in price in order to determine oversold or overbought conditions in the market.
On Mar 12, the price of LTC reached a high of $58.03. At the time of writing, this price has been reached several more times.
The MACD and RSI made the same high on Mar 12, but have continued to generate significantly lower values since. This is called bearish divergence and often precedes drops in price. Thus, it is possible that LTC may move toward the support and that a second point on the line may be traced within the near future.
In such an instance, the former resistance may emerge formally as the new support. If price continues to increase, however, new support will likely emerge.
Using these indicators, it appears likely that LTC may reach highs above $58 and then drop toward the support that has been traced—possibly validating it for a second time.
The price of LTC on Bitfinex was analyzed at six-hour intervals from Sep 1, 2018 to Mar 13 2019, in order to better visualize potential reversal areas.
Resistance and support areas are formed when the price reaches a certain level several times. They can act as a ceiling/floor that prevents the price from moving further in that direction.
The current resistance area is found between $57-$60. If price were to break out, resistance can be found near $70. Based on our current analysis, this is unlikely. However, given the rapid increases in price which have occurred for LTC so far in 2019, this situation cannot be entirely ruled out.
The closest support area is found near $48, followed by areas near $42 and $30. We believe that the price will reach at least one of these areas.
Summary Of Analysis
Based on this analysis, it is unlikely that the price reaches the $60 level soon. It is possible that the price consolidates at a level near or above $58, before ultimately falling to the support area around $50. If the price begins to decrease in value without significant increases over $58, the prediction will be fully validated. Significant increases above $58 with decreases subsequently bringing the price below this level would partially validate this prediction. However, a significant price increase in which prices fail to drop below $58 would seem to invalidate our current projection.
Do you think the price of LTC is going to continue rising or has it reached its top? Let us know in the comments below.
Disclaimer: This article is not trading advice and should not be construed as such. Always consult a trained financial professional before investing in cryptocurrencies, as the market is particularly volatile.