Is Ethereum’s Long-Term Outlook Bullish? [Premium Analysis]

The Ethereum network is expected to initiate a scheduled upgrade at block number 9,200,000. The projected date for this event is on January 1, 2020, on Wednesday.  The upgrade is called “Muir Glacier” and follows Constantinople and Istanbul. The Ethereum price has decreased by 20 percent in the month of December. If investors expect this to be a significant upgrade, it could help reverse the price in January. Cryptocurrency trader & analyst @iamcryptowolf outlined the December price decrease and stated that the Ethereum price failed to break out above the current diagonal resistance. He outlined that he is bearish in the short-term, but bullish in higher time-frames.

ETHBTC. Failed to break diagonal resistance.
Short term not looking good unless we manage to break diagonal painting that iHS on the weekly RSI.
Long term i'm a mega bull.
– Massive FW
– 15 months bullish div on the MACD pic.twitter.com/pY0OkmMPS1

— Wolf 🐺 (@IamCryptoWolf) December 23, 2019

Will Ethereum break out above the current resistance? If so, where will it go in the long-term? Keep reading below if you want to find out.

September Rally

On September 6, the Ethereum price reached a low of ₿0.0161. It began an upward move that lasted until October 9, with the price reaching a high of ₿0.023. Since then, ETH has been correcting. There are two major support areas. The first is found at ₿0.0193, which the price has validated twice. However, it broke down from it on December 16. This area is likely to act as resistance in the near future. The next support area is found at ₿0.0172. The Ethereum price is currently inside it. If it breaks down, it will likely retrace 100 percent to the September 6 low. But, we think it is more likely that we first see a bounce before a possible breakdown. There is bullish divergence in both the RSI & MACD, visible up to the four-hour time-frame, suggesting that a reversal will occur, even if it is only in the short-term. If the Ethereum price begins a retracement, it is likely to face resistance at the 0.5 Fib level at ₿0.0185 and should have the ₿0.0192 previous breakdown level as an upper limit.

Long-Term Wedge

In the longer-term, the Ethereum price has been trading inside a descending wedge since September 2018. The price was rejected by the resistance line in October and is now in the process of moving downwards towards the support line. There is a long-term support area at ₿0.011, which will coincide with the bottom of the wedge in March 2020. We believe the Ethereum price will break out from the pattern, probably before it reaches the support area. First, the weekly RSI has been generating bullish divergence the entire pattern. Also, there are two other bullish divergences, the only two ones recorded in the oversold RSI. The first transpired over September/October 2018, preceding an upward move of 60 percent over three weeks. The second one is in the process of transpiring, from September 2019. If the price makes a double bottom here, it would be confirmed. Therefore, while it is possible that the Ethereum price drops all the way to ₿0.011, we think it is more likely that it makes a double bottom and then breaks out. To conclude, the Ethereum price has been trading inside a bullish pattern since September 2018. We think the price will break out, after possibly making a double bottom at ₿0.016. The breakout should occur within the first few months of 2020.