Is Bitcoin Still In a Bullish Trend?

This range has been outlined by cryptocurrency trader @George1Trader,who presents two potential scenarios for the BTC future movement:

• The $6,900 area holds and BTC begins an upward move towards $7,800.
• The $6,900 area fails to hold and BTC decreases towards the midpoint (EQ) of the previous range at $6,300.

$BTC

Just closed 20% of my short. This is the last place where bulls could step in hard imo… Break back above the yearly open and we're probably going for those highs into 7.6k -7.8's. Break below the weekly open and it's game over.

Let's see. pic.twitter.com/1xgZLW69Lb

— George (@George1Trader) April 10, 2020

At the time of writing, the price was trading at $6,895. In the article below, we will take a look at the BTC price in different time-frames and alongside technical indicators in order to determine which possibility has a higher chance of transpiring.

Trading Range

The BTC price is currently trading right at the resistance line of the previous range at $6,900. The two possibilities for future movement are shown in the image below. At first glance, it seems more likely that the price will decrease. After BTC broke out above the range on April 7, it could not sustain the higher prices and has fallen back to the breakout level. If the price bounces upwards, this would likely be a retest of the breakout level that leads to higher prices. This possibility is outlined by the green lines and could take the price initially towards $7,200 and then to $7,450 afterwards. However, if the price falls back within the range, it would mean that the breakout failed and the price is likely to decrease rapidly toward the EQ at $6,300 and possibly $5,700 afterwards.

The fact that BTC has broken down from an ascending support line that was in place for 28 days supports the bearish possibility. This is indicative that the upward trend that had been going on since March 13 has been broken. In addition, the slope of this ascending support line further dims the upward potential of the bullish scenario. Even if the price were to increase all the way towards $7,450, that would only serve to validate this line as resistance. The price would be expected to initiate a similar downward move afterwards.

Bullish Argument

One possible argument for the bullish scenario to be the correct one comes from the daily chart. The price has reached the breakout level from above, meaning that this could still be a re-test. However, the price would have to create a long lower wick and close above $6,900 in order to keep the bullish hopes alive. Furthermore, the price is facing close resistance from the 50-day moving average (MA) and is below the yearly open.

It is safe to say that the daily close will be extremely telling for the direction of the future trend. If the price were to create a very long lower wick and close above the yearly open and the 50-day MA, it would have major bullish implications. That, however, seems unlikely. If the price were to close below $6,800, it would likely initiate a very rapid downward move towards $6,300 and below. While the price could initially increase in the short-term, this seems to be the most likely scenario.