Hedera (HBAR) price trades near $0.092, down 13% year-to-date. Bitcoin has lost roughly 20% over the same period. That gap is not random, and three distinct data points explain why HBAR has fared better.
While both tokens operate in the same macro environment, their ETF flow patterns, technical structures, and sentiment trajectories have diverged sharply in 2026. The HBAR price is not rallying, but it is bleeding less. And in a bear market, bleeding less is often the first step toward recovering faster.
HBAR ETF Flows Stay Positive While Bitcoin Bleeds
Since HBAR spot ETFs launched in late 2025, every single month has recorded a net positive inflow. The initial month saw $44.39 million flow in. That figure has significantly declined, reaching just $2.12 million in March 2026, a roughly 95% drop from the peak. But the key distinction is that no month has turned negative, which could be a key sentimental support.
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Bitcoin ETFs, by contrast, have experienced multiple net outflow months since late 2025. The sustained negative flow reflects a broader loss of institutional conviction toward BTC, while HBAR’s thin but consistent inflows suggest that its ETF holders are still in it.
The sentiment data reinforces this divergence, as highlighted earlier. Bitcoin’s positive sentiment score peaked at 1,196 in early February and has since collapsed to 54, a roughly 95% decline over three months.
HBAR’s positive sentiment also dropped, from a peak of 38.98 on February 14 to 16.80 currently, but that represents a roughly 57% decline. The erosion in HBAR sentiment has been less than half as severe as Bitcoin’s. This softer decline in community and market confidence helps explain why HBAR has held up better on a relative basis.
The ETF flows and sentiment context frame the relative strength. But whether the Hedera price can convert that into actual upside depends on its standalone technical setup, which acts as the third key chart we promised earlier.
RSI Divergence Flashes Twice in Two Weeks
The daily chart on Bybit shows a standard bullish divergence forming between December 30 and March 22. During that period, the HBAR price carved a lower low while the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum indicator, printed a higher low. The RSI currently reads 44.80.
This is not a one-off event. A similar divergence appeared around March 14, and HBAR responded with a roughly 12% bounce before finding resistance. The latest divergence on March 22 has already triggered an approximately 8% move. The repeated flashing of bullish divergences in close intervals suggests that selling pressure is progressively weakening, even if the bounces are not yet strong enough to reverse the broader trend.
Whether the current bounce extends into a meaningful rally depends on the price levels ahead. However, a key cohort’s positioning also matters ahead of the price talks.
Can Smart Money Help HBAR Price Confirm Strength?
The Smart Money Index (SMI), an indicator that tracks positioning by informed participants during key trading hours, reinforces the case. The SMI flipped above its signal line right after the March 22 RSI divergence, mirroring the same move it made after the March 14 divergence. Smart money appears to be acting on these divergence setups rather than ignoring them.
For the HBAR price to convert the divergence into sustained momentum, it first needs to cross above $0.101, the 0.382 Fibonacci level. That zone has acted as a ceiling during recent bounce attempts.
The stronger confirmation arrives at $0.107, one of the most significant swing highs on the chart. A daily close above the $0.107-$0.110 zone would validate the smart money positioning and open a path toward $0.124 (the 1.0 extension) and ultimately $0.146 at the 1.618 Fibonacci projection.
On the downside, $0.088 is the immediate support. A daily close below this zone would undermine the smart money optimism and expose HBAR to a slide toward $0.072. Currently, $0.107 is the level that separates a confirmed recovery from another bounce that fades.
