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Bitcoin (BTC) Futures DEX Predicts Price Will Reach $70,000 but There’s a Catch

2 mins
Updated by Ryan James
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In Brief

  • Traders at decentralized Bitcoin futures exchange Lyra predict Bitcoin will reach $70,000 by end of April with a 20% certainty.
  • The BTC price prediction follows Lyra customers correctly predicting Bitcoin's rally to $50,000; however, causation is unclear.
  • SkyBridge Capital's Anthony Scaramucci expects Bitcoin to reach $170,000 in the 18 months after the 2024 Bitcoin halving event.
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Bitcoin futures traders on the decentralized exchange Lyra predict that the asset will reach $70,000 by the end of April. The next Bitcoin halving will be in April, after which many pundits, including SkyBridge Capital’s Anthony Scaramucci, expect the price to rise, even as options and traders appear bullish.

Lyra’s traders predict with a 20% certainty that the price of BTC will rise to a new all-time high of $70,000 by April 26, 2024.

Bitcoin Futures Traders Called $50,000

The prediction comes after Lyra customers predicted Bitcoin’s $50,000 rally correctly. Volumes for $52,000 call options surged last week before Bitcoin broke out. However, crypto derivatives trader Samneet Chepal has noted an increase in volume after Feb. 7, which is when Lyra introduced new incentive schemes, making causation difficult to pinpoint.

bitcoin options lyra
Lyra BTC Net Options Flows Last Week | Source: Samneet Chepal

“Also interesting to see an uptick in volumes post Feb 7th which is when new Lyra incentives were announced. It’s tricky to find causation because crypto pumped during the same period but nevertheless great to see volumes picking up!,” Chepal said.

Read more: Where To Trade Bitcoin Futures: A Comprehensive Guide

Lyra is the largest Bitcoin futures decentralized crypto exchange. It recorded around $32 million in trading volume for the past 24 hours, an increase of 134% for the past seven days.

Higher Bitcoin Price Forecasts Widespread

Lyra traders’ sentiments coincide with a rise in open interest in Bitcoin futures contracts on centralized exchanges, suggesting speculation in Bitcoin’s future price is a market-wide trend. Open interest in futures rose to $23 billion earlier this week, while BeInCrypto reported around 15,766 calls at $50,000 with a notional value of $822 million earlier today.  

The next bullish event for Bitcoin is the 2024 halving that reduces the number of coins released per mined Bitcoin transaction block. Crypto market participants have weighed in on the price of Bitcoin after this event. Grayscale Investments predicts that Bitcoin’s increase around this halving cycle will be driven by a mix of the recent flows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and heightened on-chain activity.

Speaking on Bloomberg Television earlier today, the CEO of alternative investment firm SkyBridge Capital, Anthony Scaramucci, said he expects BTC to reach $170,000 in 18 months after the Bitcoin halving. According to his statement in an earlier podcast, Bitcoin has quadrupled its pre-halving price in the past 14 years, and he expects that to continue.

Read more: Best Crypto Derivative Exchanges in 2023

“There’s a technical analysis that you can do over the past 14 years. The price at the time of the halving if you multiply that by four, that’s typically where Bitcoin has run to in that cycle. You guys are seeing that the network is only producing 900 coins a day and you know, you’ve got 12 times the demand of that right now, which is why you’re seeing a price squeeze to the upside,” Scaramucci said.

BeInCrypto reached out to the CME Group, a traditional Bitcoin futures platform, for comment but had yet to hear back at press time.

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David Thomas
David Thomas graduated from the University of Kwa-Zulu Natal in Durban, South Africa, with an Honors degree in electronic engineering. He worked as an engineer for eight years, developing software for industrial processes at South African automation specialist Autotronix (Pty) Ltd., mining control systems for AngloGold Ashanti, and consumer products at Inhep Digital Security, a domestic security company wholly owned by Swedish conglomerate Assa Abloy. He has experience writing software in C,...