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Ethereum Tests Support: Holder Conviction Sets Stage for a Rebound to $4,775

17 September 2025 18:00 UTC
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  • Ethereum trades at $4,495 after slipping below $4,500, but nearly $8 billion in maturing ETH supply strengthens its bullish outlook.
  • The 3–6 month-old supply has grown by 1.76 million ETH this month, signaling strong holder conviction and reduced circulating supply.
  • If ETH reclaims $4,500, it could rally toward $4,775, with investor positioning supporting a path to new all-time highs despite short-term volatility.
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Ethereum has seen a 4% decline in recent days, pulling the altcoin king just under $4,500. 

While this short-term dip may concern some traders, the long-term outlook remains bullish as strong fundamentals and investor behavior suggest resilience ahead.

Ethereum Supply Is Maturing

Ethereum supply has matured significantly, reinforcing investor confidence in the asset’s long-term strength. Since the beginning of the month, the 3-6 month-old supply has grown by 1.76 million ETH, now valued at nearly $8 billion. This indicates that holders refrained from liquidating even during market volatility.

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Such conviction suggests that investors anticipate higher prices and are willing to ride out short-term declines. By keeping ETH locked, these holders are reducing the circulating supply, which can create favorable conditions for upward price momentum when demand returns. This behavior is a bullish foundation for Ethereum’s growth.

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Ethereum Supply Last Active 3-6 Months Ago
Ethereum Supply Last Active 3-6 Months Ago. Source: Glassnode

On the technical side, Ethereum’s momentum appears mixed in the near term. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is nearing a bearish crossover, signaling the possibility of short-lived downside pressure. This aligns with ETH’s recent price slip below the $4,500 level.

However, the broader market cues remain constructive. Even if the MACD confirms a bearish crossover, investor sentiment and maturing supply could support a quick recovery. Such dynamics highlight that any decline would likely be temporary, with ETH primed for a strong rebound soon after.

ETH MACD
ETH MACD. Source: TradingView

ETH Price Could Bounce Back

Ethereum is currently trading at $4,495, just below the $4,500 support line. It has not yet closed below $4,500, so the support is still valid.

The maturing supply and bullish long-term outlook indicate that Ethereum could bounce from the support. With fewer coins entering circulation, the altcoin has structural support for renewed upward momentum to $4,775 despite short-term volatility.

ETH Price Analysis
ETH Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

However, if the price closes below the support, ETH may slip toward $4,307, invalidating the bullish outlook.

Disclaimer

In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Please note that our Terms and Conditions, Privacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.