Ethereum has finally broken a four-week streak of continuous ETF outflows. The week ending February 18 recorded inflows, marking the first sign of returning institutional demand. At the same time, whale wallets have started accumulating again. Yet long-term holders continue selling into every Ethereum price bounce.
This creates a direct conflict that could decide whether Ethereum’s price recovery continues or stalls.
ETF Outflow Streak Ends as Whale Accumulation Begins
Ethereum spent four straight weeks under consistent institutional selling pressure. Spot Ethereum ETFs recorded net outflows in the weeks ending January 23, January 30, February 6, and February 13. This sustained selling reflected weak institutional confidence and coincided with Ethereum’s broader price decline.
That trend has now changed. The week ending February 18 saw a net inflow of $6.80 million. This shift suggests institutional selling pressure has paused, at least temporarily. When ETF flows turn positive after extended outflows, it often signals early stages of stabilization. However, the inflow figures are still weak and not at par with the outflow strength, yet.
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At the same time, whale accumulation has returned. Data shows wallets holding large amounts of Ethereum increased their holdings from 113.50 million ETH on February 15 to 113.63 million ETH currently. This represents an increase of 130,000 ETH. At the current price, this equals roughly $253 million worth of Ethereum accumulated in just a few days.
Whale accumulation during weakness is important because large investors often position early before broader recoveries begin. However, this growing optimism faces resistance from another group of investors.
Ethereum Price Flashes Bullish Divergence, But Long-Term Holders Continue Selling
Ethereum’s 8-hour chart shows a key momentum signal that has historically preceded price bounces.
Between February 2 and February 18, Ethereum’s price formed a lower low. This means the price dropped below its previous support level. But during the same period, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) formed a higher low. The RSI measures buying and selling strength and this pattern is called bullish divergence.
This signal has already proven effective twice earlier this month. The first bullish divergence formed between February 2 and February 11. Ethereum’s price then rallied 11%. The second divergence appeared between February 2 and February 15. This led to another 6% recovery.
Both these ETH bounces happened while ETF outflows were still ongoing, showing that buyers were already attempting to regain control. Now, ETF inflows have returned, and whales are accumulating. This increases the probability that another bounce attempt could happen.
However, long-term holders are moving in the opposite direction. The Hodler Net Position Change measures whether long-term holders are accumulating or selling. A negative value means long-term holders are distributing their holdings.
On February 17, long-term holders sold 34,841 ETH over the rolling 30-day period. By February 18, that number increased to 38,877 ETH. This represents a sharp increase in selling pressure in just one day, even as bullish divergence signals appeared.
This shows long-term holders are using price strength to exit positions. The same behavior was visible during earlier February rallies. Both previous bounces failed to sustain upward momentum because long-term holder selling capped the recovery.
This creates a clear conflict. Whale accumulation and ETF inflows support recovery, while long-term holder selling limits upside potential, hinting at a clear risk. This conflict is now reflected directly in Ethereum’s price structure.
Triangle Pattern Reveals Critical Levels
Ethereum is currently trading inside a symmetrical triangle pattern on the 8-hour chart. This pattern forms when the price moves between converging support and resistance lines.
A symmetrical triangle represents balance between buyers and sellers. In Ethereum’s case, buyers include whales and institutional investors returning through ETF inflows. Sellers include long-term holders distributing their positions.
This balance explains why Ethereum remains stuck in consolidation.
The first key resistance level sits near $2,030. This level stopped the previous recovery attempt. A successful move above this level would signal strengthening momentum and also confirm the triangle breakout. The next major resistance stands at $2,100, another bounce blocker. Breaking this level would confirm a stronger recovery and could open the path higher.
However, downside risks remain. Immediate reclaim level sits at $1,960. Failure to hold this level could push Ethereum down to $1,890. A deeper decline could extend toward $1,740 if selling pressure accelerates.
