Ethereum Attempts Final Push Towards $500

Long-Term Levels

The Ethereum price has almost reached the 0.5 Fib level of the entire decline which began in April 2019, found at $460. The level also marked the acceleration of the fall from that high and is likely to act as resistance in the future. Technical indicators are still bullish. Both the RSI and MACD are still increasing, even though the former is overbought. There is no bearish divergence yet. If the price were to break out above the current resistance level, the next one would be found at $550.

However, both indicators show a pronounced divergence on the daily time-frame. Furthermore, the MACD has even crossed into negative territory, a sign that the upward movement has lost momentum. However, even though volume has been consistently decreasing while the price makes higher highs, there has not been a significant sell-off yet, which would be a sign of a top.

Possible Bounce

Cryptocurrency trader @PostyXBT outlined an Ethereum chart which shows the price resting inside a support area. He states that he is still bullish and is looking for longs.

The support area outlined is found at $405, and acted as the high on August 2. The price has now returned to validate it as support. There are bullish divergences visible on the shorter-term MACD and RSI, so the price could initiate a bounce. If so, the closest resistance area would be found at $445.

Ethereum Wave Count

Beginning on March 13, the Ethereum price has possibly begun a five-wave impulsive formation, currently being in the fifth and final wave (black). The fifth wave has extended, measuring five sub-waves (blue). Furthermore, the fifth sub-wave has extended, measuring five minor sub-waves (brown). While it’s difficult to accurately determine the top of a fifth wave extension, the 2.21 Fib level of waves 1 – 3 (black) gives a target of $480, and the 0.618 Fib level of the minor sub-waves 1-3 (brown) gives a target of $487, making a top near this level likely.

The sub-wave count also fits with this possibility, since the price has completed waves 1 through 4, and a fifth wave would complete the formation, and allow the price to reach the fib targets from the previous section.

To conclude, the Ethereum price seems to be nearing the top of its upward move that began on March 13. A likely level for the top is found at $480.