Dogecoin price is still up 39% week-on-week, but the recent price dip could be more than just a minor cool-off.
With over $7 billion worth of DOGE now sitting on exchanges, the highest in six months, mounting sell pressure could drag prices lower. Historical trends and shrinking HODL Waves hint that this correction may last longer than expected.
Exchange Balances Hit 6-Month Highs
One of the biggest warning signs right now is the surge in Dogecoin exchange balances. As of July 21, over 26.1 billion DOGE sit on centralized exchanges, the highest level in six months. At a price of $0.27, that’s more than $7 billion worth of DOGE waiting to move.
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Historically, when DOGE balances on exchanges spike (local tops), it often means holders are preparing to sell. The more DOGE on exchanges, the easier it becomes to cash out, which can create selling pressure and push prices lower.
We’ve seen this before:
- May 11: Exchange balance peaked at 23.76 billion DOGE. Dogecoin price dropped from $0.23 to $0.21 within six days. An 8.6% dip!
- May 23: Balance hit 23.86 billion DOGE. Price continued falling from $0.225 to $0.15 in a month. A 33% dip!
If this pattern repeats, a drop from $0.265 to $0.22, or even lower, might not be off the table.
HODL Waves Show Shrinking Holder Confidence
Alongside rising exchange balances, HODL Waves, which measure how long DOGE has been sitting in wallets, are also shifting in a bearish direction.
Between May 16 and July 21:
- The 3–6 month band shrank from 15.06% to 6.44%
- The 1 week–1 month band dropped from 4.681 to 2.94%
This means mid-term holders and short-term believers are exiting their positions. Fewer wallets are holding DOGE for long, and more are likely shifting to exchanges, aligning with the earlier sell-side pressure. HODL Waves are a way to see how committed holders are. When these waves shrink, it often reflects doubt in continued upside.
Dogecoin Price Action: Key Support Under Threat
From the Dogecoin price perspective, $0.24 is the level to watch. The current support is holding around $0.25, but the structure weakens if DOGE slides under $0.24, which is at the 8% correction level. Below that, the $0.22 zone opens up, marking a danger zone with multiple support-level hits during the May cycle.
The last two times exchange balances spiked like this, Dogecoin price corrected by 8% and 33% respectively. If a similar pattern plays out, a drop from $0.265 toward the $0.22–$0.20 (two key Fib levels) range is not off the table. The entire price structure could turn bearish if the Dogecoin price breaches the $0.17 (the 0.236 Fib level), which would then mean a 33% drop from current levels.
What would flip this bearish hypothesis is a move beyond $0.28, led by a drop in DOGE exchange balance and an influx of new holders.
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