Options on Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) totaling $1.5 billion are approaching expiry, all while the market remains relatively calm. However, this stability may be short-lived.
The annual central bank meeting in Jackson Hole, which begins today, is widely seen as the month’s most notable macro event. Investors are particularly focused on any news regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
What’s Next for the Bitcoin and Ethereum Options Market After Expiry
According to Deribit, over $1.12 billion in Bitcoin options are set to expire, with a maximum pain point of $60,000. This batch of options includes 18,440 contracts, a decrease from last week’s 24,383. The put-to-call ratio remains stable at 0.83.
The maximum pain point in options trading is the price level where the highest number of options expire worthless, causing the most financial loss for option holders and the least payout by sellers. This level is often where market makers have the strongest incentive to steer the price.
The put-to-call ratio, which compares the number of puts (bets on declines) to calls (bets on increases), provides further insight. A ratio below 1 indicates a bullish sentiment with more calls than puts, while a ratio above 1 suggests a bearish outlook.
Read more: An Introduction to Crypto Options Trading
For Ethereum, $378.39 million in options are set to expire, covering 141,410 contracts, down from last week’s 183,821. The maximum pain point is $2,625, with a put-to-call ratio of 0.92.
Analysts from Greeks.live have commented on the market conditions leading up to today’s expiration. They noted that this week’s macro events and data did not cause major market movements, leading to a continued decline in cryptocurrencies’ historical volatility (RV) and a gradual decrease in the options market’s volatility expectations.
“Looking at options data, positions in weekly options are continuing to fall, with positions representing just under 7% of total this week. There was also no significant IV elevation at this week’s annual central bank meeting. With the market being relatively flat, waiting seems to be the best strategy. Options data suggests that the market is in a highly calm cycle, with a solid term structure and a gradually decreasing expectation of future volatility in the options market,” Greeks.live analysts suggested.
As of now, Bitcoin is trading at $61,270, reflecting a modest 0.7% increase in the past 24 hours. Similarly, Ethereum has risen by 2.1% and is approaching $2,700.
Read more: 9 Best Crypto Options Trading Platforms
Historically, options contract expirations often trigger sharp but temporary price movements, leading to uncertainty and volatility as traders brace for these shifts. However, the market usually stabilizes shortly after the expirations.
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