The crypto market has taken a heavy hit over the past month. Total market cap fell from $4.27 trillion on October 6 to $2.98 trillion on November 19, a drop of about 30%. The rebound to $3.12 trillion has not changed the debate — traders remain split.
One group says a deeper bear market is forming. The other says the correction already looks like late-stage weakness. This piece focuses on the second group. Several telltale readings now hint that the crypto bull market could start sooner than expected.
Each of the five reasons below reflects one of three things: peak weakness, peak capitulation, or a rise in fresh buying power. Together, they might be forming one of the strongest early bull cycle setups seen.
Short-Term Selling Pressure Looks Close to Exhaustion
Short-term holders have been selling at one of the fastest paces in months, and this is usually what happens near a bottom.
SponsoredBitcoin Munger flagged the spike in coins sent to exchanges at a loss, while JA Maartunn highlighted a similar surge on CryptoQuant, with more than 60,000 Bitcoin moved at a loss within hours. This kind of panic selling often marks the “clean-out” phase before a trend shift from bear market vibes.
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The on-chain data confirms it. The short-term holder SOPR fell to 0.96 on November 15, matching the same level from April 7. SOPR, or Spent Output Profit Ratio, shows whether coins spent on-chain are being sold at a profit or a loss. When it drops under 1 and then stabilizes, it often signals that weak holders have already capitulated.
Short-term holders matter because they are the group that reacts the fastest during corrections. They panic-sell earlier, hit stop losses quicker, and usually dump into weakness. This is why short-term selling pressure almost always peaks near market bottoms.
After the April reset, Bitcoin rallied from $76,270 to $123,345 within months, a near 62% move. With SOPR now back at 0.97, the latest drop hints that the selling pressure may be close to burnout.
This sets up the next question: Is fresh buying power building up elsewhere? That’s where the next indicator comes in.
Stablecoin Power Is Building Again
If short-term sellers are close to exhaustion, the next question is simple: Is there enough fresh buying power to lift prices?
Right now, the stablecoin data says yes.
Sponsored SponsoredThe Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) has dropped to 11.59, its lowest reading in over a year. SSR compares Bitcoin’s market cap to the total stablecoin supply. When SSR falls, it means stablecoins hold more buying power relative to Bitcoin. Traders sometimes refer to this as “dry powder.”
This level is even lower than the 12.89 reading seen on April 8, the same period when Bitcoin bottomed near $76,276 before rallying for months. Lower SSR means stablecoins can buy more Bitcoin per unit of supply, which usually appears near market lows.
A second confirmation comes from the RSI of SSR, highlighted by analyst Maartunn. It sits near 26, a level that has repeatedly aligned with Bitcoin bottoms during the past bear markets. A low RSI here means stablecoin buying power is oversold relative to Bitcoin’s size — a rare setup that often appears before trend shifts.
Taken together, the rising stablecoin reserves and the deeply compressed SSR show the market has the liquidity needed for a crypto bull market rebound.
Altcoin Profit Reset Might Be Quietly Strengthening the Crypto Bull Market Case
Short-term capitulation and low SSR already show that selling pressure is close to exhaustion. The next layer comes from altcoins, where the reset is even deeper.
Glassnode’s latest data shows that only about 5% of altcoin supply is still in profit, which is a level normally seen during late-stage capitulation. When almost every holder is underwater, the market usually has very little left to sell.
This is similar to Bitcoin’s own wipeout, where 95% of all coins bought in the last 155 days are now underwater — higher than the COVID and FTX crashes.
This combination matters because altcoins often stabilize before Bitcoin when profit ratios collapse this sharply. Even though Bitcoin dominance is still near 60%, the gap between Bitcoin’s profit decline and the near-zero altcoin profit level suggests altcoins might be closer to forming a base.
If the crypto bull market does start from a deep reset, altcoins are often the first to respond simply because they have no remaining overhead pressure. This raises the possibility that an altcoin-led phase could start first.
Sentiment Drops to Extreme Fear: Exactly How Bull Markets Start?
After looking at altcoin losses and Bitcoin’s underwater supply, the next piece that ties the crypto bull market story together is sentiment. The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index fell to 10 on November 15, marking its lowest reading since February 27, when Bitcoin traded near $84,718. That earlier reading came just weeks before Bitcoin bottomed in April and began the same rally we referenced earlier — the move from $76,276 on April 8 to $123,345 by August 13, a 62% jump.
This new drop to 10 matters because extreme fear usually appears after most of the selling is done. Even during the April rebound, the index only briefly hit 18 and never slipped back to 10. Falling to that range again suggests the market has already gone through its emotional flush.
Industry leaders like Thomas Chen, CEO of Function, also describe this phase as washed-out and emotionally stretched:
Sponsored Sponsored“Allocator behavior has tilted sharply toward selloffs with over $2.8B in outflows… it almost feels like it’s moving back to the question: do I even want to hold BTC in this environment? With the Fear and Greed Index at extreme fear, this looks similar to the 2022 Luna crash,” he said.
Coming right after altcoin capitulation and record-low stablecoin ratios, this fear reset strengthens the broader case that the base for the next crypto bull market may be forming.
A Fresh Death Cross Just Finished Playing Out — And Bitcoin Could React?
The final signal pointing toward a possible crypto bull market is the new death cross that formed on November 15. A death cross happens when the 50-day moving average drops below the 200-day moving average. Moving averages show the average closing price over a period, so this crossover often highlights trend exhaustion rather than the start of a long crash.
Bitcoin dropped about 17% during the entire “crossing-in” phase, leading to the final signal. This move is almost identical to the 16% drop seen during the April death-cross setup. That April structure played out fully, wiped out weak momentum, and then the April-to-August rally started.
This time, something similar is happening under the surface. The price made a higher low during these two market phases, but the RSI is making a lower low. RSI tracks momentum, and this kind of hidden bullish divergence usually hints that sellers are tiring. It acts like the final pressure release before the uptrend started earlier continues. And this aligns with the peak capitulation theory shared earlier.
Fred Thiel, CEO of MARA Holdings, pointed out that the recent breakdown reflects a macro-driven flush, not just a chart event.
“Bitcoin’s drop below $90,000 reflects a perfect storm of macro headwinds and profit-taking. Long-term holders have distributed over 815,000 BTC in the past month, the most aggressive selling since 2024,” he highlighted.
If Bitcoin holds above the recent lows, the death cross may end up being another reset rather than a breakdown.
That was the case earlier this year, and it is one reason traders think the crypto bull market foundation is quietly forming again. However, if the Bitcoin price doesn’t react soon to this recently formed crossover, the bull market inception might have to wait longer.
