Cardano (ADA) price is now trading around $0.85 after a sharp 13% daily rally and a 37%+ month-on-month rally.
While it’s facing resistance at $0.86, bullish indicators across on-chain and chart metrics suggest this may just be a breather before ADA breaks toward $1 and beyond.
Age Consumed Shows Strong Hands Holding
Despite the ADA’s rapid price surge, the Age Consumed metric shows no signs of old tokens being moved. The last major spike came in mid-June when over 130 billion ADA aged tokens were moved. Since then, activity has remained muted, with the latest value hovering near 250 million ADA.
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In simpler terms, Age Consumed tells us how many older tokens are suddenly moving again. When it’s low during a rally, like it is now, it signals confidence: long-term holders aren’t rushing to sell.
MVRV Ratio Signals More Upside
While the old coins are sitting tight, even the new holders might not be looking to sell anytime soon. The 60-day MVRV ratio for Cardano sits at 22.91%, far below its previous danger zone. Back in mid-May, the same ratio crossed 131%, right before a steep selloff began. Historically, ADA has room to run until the MVRV reaches much higher profit zones.
For example, in mid-April, the MVRV ratio hovered around 20–25%, and Cardano still managed to rally over 35%, climbing from $0.62 to $0.85. With the current ratio showing there’s no extreme profit pressure, ADA could follow a similar trajectory.
The 60-day MVRV measures the average profit or loss of holders who bought ADA over the past two months. A low positive value suggests holders aren’t sitting on big gains, and are less likely to sell.
Exponential Moving Averages Point to Momentum
Cardano’s 20-day EMA (exponential moving average) just completed a rare triple golden crossover:
- Crossed above the 50-day on July 14
- Crossed above the 100-day mark on July 17
- Now crossed above the 200-day just hours ago (showing strength in mid-term)
This kind of cascading EMA breakout shows growing momentum and confirms the strength of the ongoing trend.
Key ADA Price Resistance Needs to Break
Cardano is currently testing resistance at $0.86, which also lines up with the 1.0 Fibonacci retracement from its May highs. A successful breakout would open the doors to the next major target at $1.07, the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level.
However, RSI (relative strength index) divergence could slow things a bit. On the 4-hour chart, however, a bearish divergence has emerged. Since July 11, Cardano’s price has been pushing higher highs, but the RSI is printing lower highs. This mismatch suggests buyers may be slowing down.
Bearish divergence doesn’t always mean a reversal, but it often triggers short-term consolidation. So, ADA might pause before charging past resistance.
If RSI divergence drags prices down, short-term invalidation could come if ADA dips below $0.78, a previous support level. But unless long-term holders start dumping (which Age Consumed and MVRV say they aren’t), the rally likely still has legs.
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