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Why Bitcoin’s Record High May Be Followed by a Decline Below $120,000

09 October 2025 10:55 UTC
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  • BTC price hits a record high of $126,199 but shows hesitation as sideways trading and falling Holder Accumulation Ratio signal weakening confidence.
  • Rising Liveliness suggests long-term holders are taking profits, hinting at a short-term pullback toward the $120,000 support zone.
  • If BTC breaks below $120,090, it could drop to $118,922; renewed demand, however, may help reclaim its $126,199 peak.
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Leading digital asset Bitcoin (BTC) hit a record high of $126,199 on Monday, marking a major milestone. However, since reaching this peak, the coin has largely traded sideways, showing signs of hesitation among traders. 

With many market participants anticipating a potential move below the $120,000 region, on-chain indicators suggest that a short-term downward trend could be looming.

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Bitcoin Momentum Weakens as Holders Exit

Subtle signs of weakening momentum accompany BTC’s recent sideways trend. According to Glassnode, the coin’s Holder Accumulation Ratio has trended downward since Monday and continues to decline.

At press time, the ratio is at 54.42%, falling by 2% in the past four days. 

For token TA and market updates: Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

BTC Holder Accumulation Ratio
BTC Holder Accumulation Ratio. Source: Glassnode

The Holder Accumulation Ratio measures the proportion of active holders increasing their positions versus those decreasing them. 

A higher ratio indicates that more BTC is being retained, signaling strong confidence and accumulation among investors. 

Conversely, when it falls, as seen over the past few days, it suggests that more holders are selling or moving their coins rather than accumulating them.

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At the same time, BTC’s Liveliness has resumed its uptrend since Monday. The metric closed October 8 at 0.6298.


BTC Liveliness.
BTC Liveliness. Source: Glassnode

Liveliness tracks the movement of long-held/dormant tokens. It does this by measuring the ratio of an asset’s coin days destroyed to the total coin days accumulated. 

When the metric falls, LTHs are moving their assets off exchanges, a move seen as a bullish signal of accumulation.

Conversely, when it climbs like this, it means that LTHs are moving their coins and selling them. This signals caution and a buildup of a profit-taking trend that could lower BTC’s price.

Can Buyers Step In Before a Deeper Drop?

Without renewed buying interest, BTC risks slipping toward the $120,000 zone. A breach of the support floor at $120,090 could trigger a further decline to $118,922. 

BTC Price Analysis
BTC Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

However, if new buyers enter the market and demand picks up, the cryptocurrency could stabilize above current levels and potentially revisit its all-time high of $126,199. 

Disclaimer

In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Please note that our Terms and Conditions, Privacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.